Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // NY-18 ]

New York's 18th District

Pat Ryan (D)vsJacqueline Auringer (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+2 · Incumbent: Pat Ryan (D)

9 in 10

Pat Ryan favored98%

All but certain for Pat Ryan: a 98 percent chance of winning. Polls: Pat Ryan up 5.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+2
  • Incumbent:Pat Ryan (D)
  • District:18 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Ryan 98%
  • Margin:Ryan +12.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Ryan +5.1
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Sep 30, Ryan +9.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ryan +12.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ryan +12.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ryan +6.7 to Ryan +18.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Ryan +5.1 across 3 polls, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Ryan +18.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ryan ahead is positive, Auringer ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • Public Policy PollingRyan +9
    Sep 30 · B+ · 561 RV51 to 42 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Ryan +5.1
  • Global Strategy GroupRyan +5
    Jul 26 · B/C · 500 LV46 to 41 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Ryan +1.9
  • Impact ResearchRyan +7
    Feb 17 · B/C · 500 LV42 to 35 · 0% weight
    adjusted Ryan +8.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Pat Ryan (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Pat Ryan (D, incumbent) vs Jacqueline Auringer (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 57.2, Republican 42.8. Ryan by 14.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+2 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats