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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // PA-14 ]

Pennsylvania's 14th District

Alan Bradstock (D)vsGuy Reschenthaler (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+17 · Incumbent: Guy Reschenthaler (R)

99 in 100

Guy Reschenthaler favored>99%

All but certain for Guy Reschenthaler: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+17
  • Incumbent:Guy Reschenthaler (R)
  • District:14 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Reschenthaler >99%
  • Margin:Reschenthaler +24.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Reschenthaler +24.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Reschenthaler +24.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Reschenthaler +32.3 to Reschenthaler +16.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Reschenthaler +24.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bradstock ahead is positive, Reschenthaler ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+17, worth 29.6 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Guy Reschenthaler, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Reschenthaler +24.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Guy Reschenthaler (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Alan Bradstock (D) vs Guy Reschenthaler (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 33.4, Republican 66.6. Reschenthaler by 33.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
R+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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