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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // PA-16 ]

Pennsylvania's 16th District

Justin Wagner (D)vsMike Kelly (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Mike Kelly (R)

9 in 10

Mike Kelly favored97%

Very likely for Mike Kelly: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Mike Kelly (R)
  • District:16 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Kelly 97%
  • Margin:Kelly +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Kelly +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Kelly +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kelly +21.9 to Kelly +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Kelly +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Wagner ahead is positive, Kelly ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mike Kelly, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Kelly +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Kelly (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Justin Wagner (D) vs Mike Kelly (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.4, Republican 63.6. Kelly by 27.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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