Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-27 ]

Texas's 27th District

Tanya Lloyd (D)vsMichael Cloud (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Michael Cloud (R)

9 in 10

Michael Cloud favored95%

Very likely for Michael Cloud: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Michael Cloud (R)
  • District:27 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Cloud 95%
  • Margin:Cloud +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cloud +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cloud +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cloud +20.1 to Cloud +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Cloud +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lloyd ahead is positive, Cloud ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Michael Cloud, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Cloud +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Michael Cloud (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Tanya Lloyd (D) vs Michael Cloud (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.0, Republican 66.0. Cloud by 32.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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