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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // GA-14 ]

Georgia's 14th District

Shawn Harris (D)vsClay Fuller (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+19 · Incumbent: Clay Fuller (R)

99 in 100

Clay Fuller favored>99%

All but certain for Clay Fuller: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+19
  • Incumbent:Clay Fuller (R)
  • District:14 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Fuller >99%
  • Margin:Fuller +27.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Fuller +27.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Fuller +27.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Fuller +35.8 to Fuller +20.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Fuller +27.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Harris ahead is positive, Fuller ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+19, worth 33.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Clay Fuller, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Fuller +27.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Clay Fuller (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Shawn Harris (D) vs Clay Fuller (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 35.6, Republican 64.4. Greene by 28.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
R+19 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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