Live results here election night Nov 3 · 2 days
Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Sunday, November 1
Morning Afternoon Evening
2 days to November 3
Today's story
Lilly PredictsCognetti
Democrat
Bresnahan
Republican
The board holds: Democrats 68 in 100 for the Senate, 92 for the House and 69 for the governors
Cognetti
Democrat
Bresnahan
Republican
Democrats are 68 in 100 for the Senate, 92 for the House and 69 for the governors; nothing moved more than a point since yesterday. No race moved more than a point or two. No new polls came in. The closest race in the country is Pennsylvania's 8th district, Cognetti 50 in 100. 2 days to November 3.
Nothing moved the closest races today
Cognetti (D) 50 in 100, a coin flip
Hamilton (D) 51 in 100, a coin flip
Orden (R) 51 in 100, a coin flip
Hinson (R) 52 in 100, a coin flip
Bottoms (D) 52 in 100, a coin flip
Wagner (R) 52 in 100, a coin flip
68 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
92 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
69 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
Results by email
Election night, live
Get an email when the results start coming in on November 3, and one the morning after with what happened. Then the daily brief, if you want it. Free, and your address stays with us: it is never shared or sold.
Election night, then the morning brief · Unsubscribe anytime
Polls
No new polls since the day before.
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The world's top story
Iran's supreme leader warns U.S., Israel against new attacks
CBS News World reported it at 11:54 pm Eastern. Read it ▸
Last night's story
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
Who is voting
Where the energy is
Biggest swing
Pennsylvania
+9
point swing toward Republicans
Against all of 2022's early vote, so early weeks can overstate it
Independents
North Carolina
+5
point jump in independents
More people voting
North Carolina
+32%
more early votes than the same day in 2022
LILLY SAYS: Each state below shows how many people have already voted early, which party they registered with (not how they voted), and how that stacks up against 2022, the last midterm. Democrats vote early and Republicans wait for Election Day, so a blue lead is the weather, not the forecast. The tell is the swing since 2022, and the independents, because they decide most of these races.
Races to watch // Senate
Iowa
+7point swing toward Republicans
+4point jump in independents
As of October 31
House race to watch: IA-02
440,389 early votes so far, already 129% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 46%, Republicans 34%, independents 20%.
More Republicans are registered, yet 38 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 21 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 19, independents 16%. Now: Democrats by 12, independents 20%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Kansas
+8point swing toward Democrats
+2point jump in independents
As of October 31
422,143 early votes so far, already 115% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 41%, Republicans 44%, independents 15%.
About one and a half times as many Republicans are registered, yet 33 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 20 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Republicans by 10, independents 13%. Now: Republicans by 2, independents 15%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Maine
No real change since 2022
+4point jump in independents
As of October 30 · registration from March 7
288,672 early votes so far, already 130% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 47%, Republicans 23%, independents 30%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 44 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 24 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 25, independents 26%. Now: Democrats by 24, independents 30%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
North Carolina
+6point swing toward Democrats
+5point jump in independents
As of October 30
House race to watch: NC-01
2,612,249 early votes so far: 32% more than on the same day in 2022.
Who: Democrats 39%, Republicans 26%, independents 35%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 43 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 29 in every 100 Republicans.
Same day in 2022: Democrats by 7, independents 30%. Now: Democrats by 13, independents 35%. 2022 source
LILLY SAYS: The other eight don't sort voters by party, or haven't published it yet, so I can tell you how many have voted but not who.
Alaska
86,317
257% of 2022's early vote
Georgia
2,823,265
112% of 2022's early vote
Michigan
1,858,731
122% of 2022's early vote
House races to watch: MI-04, MI-07, MI-10
Minnesota
728,961
124% of 2022's early vote
New Hampshire
Not yet
No early count published
Ohio
1,594,055
114% of 2022's early vote
House race to watch: OH-07
South Carolina
986,460
160% of 2022's early vote
House race to watch: SC-01
Texas
7,630,789
139% of 2022's early vote
House races to watch: TX-15, TX-35
The House races and every other state ▸
An early vote is one person who has already voted, by mail or in person. Bars: the share of each party's own registered voters who have voted. 2022: North Carolina on the same day, the others at the end of early voting (UF Election Lab), so a rough guide.
LILLY SAYS: Light is the energy. Each state against its own 2022, so states that vote by mail don't look hot just for that. Bright white is already past half of last time's early vote with 2 days to go. Point at a state for who those voters are, and tap North Carolina, Pennsylvania or South Carolina for the exact pace against the same day in 2022.
- Connecticut added early in person voting after 2022, so it runs hot partly by rule.
- Kentucky opens early in person voting only in the last days, so it looks cold until then.
- Michigan added early in person voting after 2022, so it runs hot partly by rule.
- Oklahoma opens early in person voting only in the last days, so it looks cold until then.
- South Carolina's count here is in person only, while its 2022 total includes mail, so its shade understates it.
Hottest: Alaska 257%, Virginia 163%, Mississippi 153%. Coolest: West Virginia 81%, Vermont 82%, North Dakota 88%. Older counts: Mississippi.
LILLY SAYS: Who has voted early says who is motivated, not who will win. Democrats vote early and Republicans vote on the day, so a blue lead this early is the weather.
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The world and the money
Bloomberg MarketsAn Asian Stock Trader’s Guide Ahead of the US Midterm Elections
Wall Street Journal WorldRussia’s Shadow Fleet Turns to Nets and Rubber Tires for Makeshift Drone Armor
NYT BusinessHow Binance’s $6.3 Billion Hack Went Down
Previous editions
November 1The board holds: Democrats 68 in 100 for the Senate, 92 for the House and 69 for the governors
October 31I'm reconsidering Alaska
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard
Get this every morning
One email each morning by 6 a.m. Eastern. Unsubscribe anytime. Your address stays with us: it is never shared or sold.