T-minus 11 days
Good morning. Today is Friday, October 23rd, 2026. The numbers are in; the morning brief is on its way.
63 in 100
Republicans +1 since yesterday
91 in 100
Steady since yesterday
67 in 100
Steady since yesterday
Biggest move: the Senate, 1 point toward Republicans · Closest race: Wisconsin's 3rd, 50 to 50
- Coin flips · 10 races closer than 55 to 45
- Wisconsin's 3rd districtOrden (R) 50
- Wisconsin's 1st districtSteil (R) 51
- Pennsylvania's 8th districtBresnahan (R) 51
- Missouri's 2nd districtWagner (R) 51
- Iowa SenateHinson (R) 52
- The Nevada governor's raceFord (D) 52
- Alaska SenateSullivan (R) 52
- Alabama's 2nd districtMarques (R) 53
- Florida's 7th districtElijah (R) 53
- Florida's 22nd districtDandiya (D) 55
Polls
Maine SenateDecidingBeacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A-) · 1,514 likely voters
Even
New Hampshire SenateDecidingSt. Anselm (A/B) · 1,672 likely voters
D+7
New Hampshire's 1st districtSt. Anselm (A/B) · 861 likely voters
D+4
The Maine governor's raceBeacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A-) · 1,514 likely voters
D+10
The New Hampshire governor's raceSt. Anselm (A/B) · 1,672 likely voters
R+8
The Illinois governor's raceActiVote · 400 likely voters
D+17
Top story
world and moneyEurope needs a war economy
Al Jazeera reported it at 3:08 am Eastern. Read it at Al Jazeera ▸
Last night's top storyNPR World
What we know about war plans that Trump and Netanyahu are drawing up
The economy
Also today
DebateFox News
Trump pushback, Biden 'disaster' and gender surprise: 5 key moments from Kansas Senate debate
DebateRealClearPolitics
DebateWisconsin Examiner
U.S. Rep. Tony Wied, challenger Rick Crosson debate in 8th CD race
EndorsementThe Hill
Prominent Texas lawyer who donated more than $600K to pro-Paxton PAC endorses Talarico
DebateRealClearPolitics
MemoFlorida Politics
In full-NIMBY leaked audio, Casey Askar supports data centers only in ‘rural areas’
MemoSemafor
Who is voting
Where the energy is
Biggest swing
Kansas
+21
point swing toward Democrats
Against all of 2022's early vote, so early weeks can overstate it
Independents
North Carolina
+5
point jump in independents
More people voting
North Carolina
+38%
more early votes than the same day in 2022
LILLY SAYS: Each state below shows how many people have already voted early, which party they registered with (not how they voted), and how that stacks up against 2022, the last midterm. Democrats vote early and Republicans wait for Election Day, so a blue lead is the weather, not the forecast. The tell is the swing since 2022, and the independents, because they decide most of these races.
Races to watch // Senate
Iowa
No real change since 2022
Independents steady since 2022
As of October 22
House toss up: IA-02
167,195 early votes so far, already 49% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 52%, Republicans 31%, independents 17%.
More Republicans are registered, yet 16 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 7 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 19, independents 16%. Now: Democrats by 20, independents 17%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Kansas
+21point swing toward Democrats
Independents steady since 2022
As of October 22
122,344 early votes so far, already 33% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 49%, Republicans 38%, independents 13%.
About one and a half times as many Republicans are registered, yet 12 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 5 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Republicans by 10, independents 13%. Now: Democrats by 11, independents 13%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Maine
+7point swing toward Democrats
+2point jump in independents
As of October 21 · registration from March 7
135,484 early votes so far, already 61% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 52%, Republicans 20%, independents 28%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 23 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 10 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 25, independents 26%. Now: Democrats by 32, independents 28%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
North Carolina
+13point swing toward Democrats
+5point jump in independents
As of October 21
House toss ups: NC-01, NC-11
1,101,318 early votes so far: 38% more than on the same day in 2022.
Who: Democrats 43%, Republicans 23%, independents 34%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 20 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 11 in every 100 Republicans.
Same day in 2022: Democrats by 8, independents 29%. Now: Democrats by 21, independents 34%. 2022 source
LILLY SAYS: The other eight don't sort voters by party, or haven't published it yet, so I can tell you how many have voted but not who.
Alaska
26,328
78% of 2022's early vote
Georgia
1,467,650
58% of 2022's early vote
Michigan
920,773
60% of 2022's early vote
House toss ups: MI-04, MI-07, MI-10
Minnesota
202,252
34% of 2022's early vote
New Hampshire
Not yet
No early count published
Ohio
838,018
60% of 2022's early vote
House toss ups: OH-07, OH-09
South Carolina
280,114
45% of 2022's early vote
Texas
2,270,617
41% of 2022's early vote
House toss ups: TX-15, TX-34
The House races and every other state ▸
An early vote is one person who has already voted, by mail or in person. Bars: the share of each party's own registered voters who have voted. 2022: North Carolina on the same day, the others at the end of early voting (UF Election Lab), so a rough guide.
This week
The world and the money
Al JazeeraEurope needs a war economy
Wall Street Journal MarketsSterling Little Moved After U.K. Retail Sales Data as Investor Await PMI Figures
Bloomberg MarketsBridgewater China Cut Gold and Is ‘Optimistic’ on Local Stocks
Bloomberg EconomicsUK Retail Sales Fall 0.4% in September, More Than Forecast
Wall Street Journal WorldIran Threatens Wider Strikes on Economic and Civilian Targets if U.S. Attacks
State headlines
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Previous editions
October 23Europe needs a war economy
October 15Oil up 9 percent to $104.71 a barrel
September 27Bessent says Iran will have 'nothing left to trade' within two weeks as oil lifeline dries up
September 26Alaska Senate: 6 points of win probability toward Peltola (D), now Sullivan (R) 56 percent to win
September 25Oil down 11 percent to $85.23 a barrel
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 percent
September 21Virginia's 1st district: 26 points of win probability toward Wittman (R), now Wittman (R) 67 percent to win
September 18Texas Senate: 7 points of win probability toward Talarico (D), now Talarico (D) 63 percent to win
September 17The Ohio special Senate race: 9 points of win probability toward Brown (D), now Brown (D) 69 percent to win
September 16Iowa Senate: 5 points of win probability toward Hinson (R), now Hinson (R) 63 percent to win
September 15Gas, regular up 4 percent on the week to $4.32
September 14Nebraska Senate: 18 points of win probability toward Osborn (I), now Ricketts (R) 66 percent to win
September 8Diesel up 7 percent on the week to $5.97
September 7Diesel up 7 percent on the week to $5.97
September 3Iran prefers conflict with US over peace to suppress internal uprising, human rights activist warns
September 1Oil up 5 percent to $91.48 a barrel
August 18Michigan Senate: 5 points of win probability toward El-Sayed (D), now El-Sayed (D) 54 percent to win
August 17Alaska Senate: 8 points of win probability toward Peltola (D), now Sullivan (R) 64 percent to win