Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 12 days

Good morning. Today is Thursday, October 22nd, 2026, and this is your morning brief. The afternoon edition lands around 1.

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SenateDemocrats favored

65 in 100

Democrats +1 since yesterday

HouseDemocrats favored

92 in 100

Steady since yesterday

GovernorsDemocrats favored

69 in 100

Steady since yesterday

Biggest move: the Senate, 1 point toward Democrats · Closest race: Wisconsin's 1st, 51 to 49

Behind the arrows

The races that moved in Lilly Predicts since yesterday · the arrow shows who gained
The Ohio special Senate race6 ptsBrown (D)65→71in 100Why: a new Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research poll, Brown (D) +5, 1,592 likely voters. The Florida special Senate race4 ptsMoody (R)84→80in 100Why: no new poll here. Older polls count for less each day, and the national average moved. The Texas governor's race3 ptsAbbott (R)68→72in 100Why: a new Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research poll, Abbott (R) +5, 1,398 likely voters. Texas Senate2 ptsTalarico (D)59→57in 100Why: a new Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research poll, even, 1,398 likely voters. South Dakota Senate4 ptsRounds (R)96→100in 100Why: a new Quantus Insights poll, Rounds (R) +22, 657 likely voters.

The Big Four today

Rating changes and the raters' own headlines

No new rating changes today. The last moves, from Tuesday:

▲

Sabato's Crystal Ball moves 28 House races, all toward Democrats.Tossup to Lean D: IA-03, IA-02, WI-03, PA-10, AZ-06, CO-08, AZ-01, NC-01, NC-11 · Lean R to Tossup: TX-35 · Likely R to Lean R: TX-23, NV-02, SC-01, MN-01, CO-04, NY-21 · Safe R to Likely R: IN-05, KS-02, MD-01, NE-01, NJ-02, WA-05 · Lean D to Likely D: CA-48, NH-01, CA-13, NV-03, NY-04, OH-01

Oct 20
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Cook Political Report moves the SC Senate race from Likely R to Lean R.

Oct 20
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Cook Political Report moves the MS Senate race from Solid R to Likely R.

Oct 20
▲

Cook Political Report moves the MN Senate race from Likely D to Lean D.

Oct 20
▲

Inside Elections moves 5 Senate races, all toward Democrats.Tilt R to Tossup: TX · Likely R to Tilt R: KS · Likely R to Lean R: SC · Solid R to Likely R: FL · Tossup to Tilt D: NH

Oct 20
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Sabato's Crystal Ball moves South Carolina Senate from Lean R to Likely R.

Oct 20
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Sabato's Crystal Ball moves New Hampshire Senate from Lean D to Likely D.

Oct 20

The Big Four

What the professionals say, beside Lilly Predicts
SenateHouseGovernors
Cook Political Report13 / 7 / 15211 / 21 / 20018 / 4 / 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball15 / 5 / 15220 / 12 / 20019 / 3 / 14
Inside Elections14 / 4 / 17209 / 18 / 20517 / 4 / 15
Silver Bulletin19 / 1 / 15235 / 10 / 19021 / 1 / 14
Lilly_Predicts17 / 2 / 16231 / 6 / 19821 / 0 / 15
Chance of control
Silver BulletinD 77D 95D 84
Lilly_PredictsD 65D 92D 69

Every row counts the races on the ballot: leaning Democratic / toss up / leaning Republican. The raters judge each race; for the two models, a toss up is a race where neither side is above 55 in 100, the coin flip line used across this site (Silver's House split is his own rating map). Below the gold line, the two models' chance in 100 that the favored party wins control of the chamber.

The mood of the nation

It lifts or sinks every race at once
Generic ballotDemocrats ahead

D +8.5 points

Steady since yesterday

Last 30 days: steady

Trump approvalUnderwater

36 approve / 61 disapprove

Net −25

Last 30 days: net down 3

Polls

6 new since yesterday · deciding races first

The Ohio special Senate raceDecidingBeacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A-) · 1,592 likely voters

D+5

Texas SenateDecidingBeacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A-) · 1,398 likely voters

Even

The Ohio governor's raceBeacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A-) · 1,592 likely voters

D+2

The Texas governor's raceBeacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A-) · 1,398 likely voters

R+5

South Dakota SenateQuantus Insights (B/C) · 657 likely voters

R+22

The Pennsylvania governor's raceActiVote · 400 likely voters

D+23

The betting markets

A check, never the lead

Senate

Lilly_PredictsD 65

House

Lilly_PredictsD 92

Top story

world and money

Russia pounds Ukraine with missiles and drones, hours after agreeing to peace talks

ABC News World reported it at 5:06 am Eastern. Read it at ABC News World ▸

Last night's top storyBloomberg

Sabato's Crystal Ball Moves 28 House Races Toward Dems

The economy

Gold means an unusual move
Gas$4.28▼ 5¢ · wk
Diesel$6.28▲ 10¢ · wk
Oil, WTI$107.89▼ 1.9% · Oct 20
Fed funds3.88%↔ flat · Oct 20
30yr mortgage7.40%↔ flat · wk
10yr Treasury5.12%▼ 0.03 · Oct 20
Sentiment51.7▼ 3.5 · Aug
Unemployment4.2%▲ 0.1 · Sep
S&P 5007,757▲ 0.6% · Oct 21
Dow52,856▲ 0.7% · Oct 21

Also today

What else moved a race

DebateNYT4:03a

MAGA Bingo and Questions of Loyalty: 5 Michigan Senate Debate Takeaways

DebateFox News4:00a

WATCH: Top 3 clashes in heated MN governor debate as Walz's legacy looms large: 'Change the culture'

ScandalPortland Press Herald4:00a

Perturbed by investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar | Letter

ScandalOhio Capital Journal3:05a

RI Democratic Party Chair resigns after husband indicted on federal fraud charges in Ohio

ScandalNew York PostWed

Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton admits ‘mistakes were made’ in church sexual abuse scandal

TrumpThe Guardian12:57a

Protesters disrupt Donald Trump's South Carolina rally – video

MemoFlorida PoliticsWed

In full-NIMBY leaked audio, Casey Askar supports data centers only in ‘rural areas’

MemoNew York PostTue

Hochul leads Blakeman by only 4 points in NY governor’s race, GOP internal poll claims

MemoCleveland.comTue

Democrat’s estranged mom attacks her as ‘liar’ in leaked GOP ad

This week

18 on the calendar ▸
ThuFL: Last day to request a mailed ballot, 5 p.m. local (the 12th day before the election; date calculated from that rule). dos.fl.gov
ThuNH: Governor forum hosted by NHPR and Granite State News Collaborative, Harpoon at Queen City Center, Manchester, 6 p.m. Eastern. Radio October 23. nhpr.org
FriAZ: Sign up for the early voting list at least 11 days before Election Day for a mailed ballot (date calculated; one-time request deadline not stated). azsos.gov
FriGA: Last day to request absentee ballot by mail for the November general election. sos.ga.gov
FriNE: Application for early voting ballot to be mailed must arrive by 6 p.m. local. sos.nebraska.gov
FriSC: Completed absentee application must be returned by 5 p.m. local; qualifying excuse required. scvotes.gov
FriTX: Ballot by mail application must be received, not merely postmarked. sos.texas.gov
SatAK: Absentee by-mail application deadline is October 24 (homepage banner, no further detail). elections.alaska.gov
SatFL: Required early voting period begins; counties may offer earlier optional days. dos.fl.gov
SatMI: Required early in person voting begins, the second Saturday before Election Day (date calculated); some places may open earlier. michigan.gov
TueFed meeting begins Federal Reserve
TueIA: Governor debate, Rob Sand and Zach Lahn, KCRG and The Gazette, 6:30 p.m. Central. kcrg.com
TueKS: All counties must offer advance voting in person by today; counties were allowed to start October 14. sos.ks.gov
TueOH: Absentee ballot application must be received by county board by 8:30 p.m. local. ohiosos.gov
TuePA: Mail or civilian absentee ballot application deadline, 5 p.m. Eastern. pa.gov
WedBLS Business Employment Dynamics, first quarter 2026, 10 a.m. Eastern. bls.gov
WedBLS Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment, September 2026, 10 a.m. Eastern. bls.gov
WedFed decision Federal Reserve

Who is voting

Early ballots · counts who voted, not how

Iowa124k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D53/R30

Alaska17k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

17kNo party split

Texas732k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

732kNo party split

Kansas91k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D50/R37

Ohio764k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

764kNo party split

Maine135k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D52/R20

Nebraska116k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D42/R41

South Carolina214k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

214kNo party split

Michigan861k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

861kNo party split

Florida1.7m ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D41/R38

Arizona649k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D39/R38

Georgia1.3m ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

1.3mNo party split

Minnesota202k ballots · October 16 · sos.mn.gov

202kNo party split

Mississippi30k ballots · October 19 · UF Election Lab

30kNo party split

Nevada235k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D34/R31

North Carolina924k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D44/R22

Pennsylvania679k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

D67/R24

Vermont80k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

80kNo party split

Wisconsin313k ballots · October 21 · UF Election Lab

313kNo party split

The front page

6 headlines

NYTReliably Red Iowa in Play as Economic Woes Mount

5:03a

NYT UpshotEmployers Shift Rising Health Care Costs Onto Millions of Workers

5:03a

Axios"Stop whining": What Vance's take on Ohio ad controversy means for 2028

5:00a

Free BeaconEl-Sayed’s Fellow Muslim Brotherhood Supporters, Who Signed Letter With Him Urging Brotherhood To ‘Purge’ the Media and Police, Have Poured Thousands Into His Campaign

5:00a

Pennsylvania Capital-StarWallace tests incumbent Meuser in 9th Congressional District

5:00a

NPRTrump's redistricting gave Republicans a head start, now it goes to the voters

5:00a

The world and the money

CNBCBarclays to slash 5,000 jobs in AI efficiency push

5:23a

ABC News BusinessWorld shares retreat as report of damage to oil takers pushes oil prices higher

5:21a

CBS News WorldU.S. reducing troop footprint in Middle East, sources say

5:18a

ABC News WorldRussia pounds Ukraine with missiles and drones, hours after agreeing to peace talks

5:06a

NYT BusinessReliably Red Iowa in Play as Economic Woes Mount

5:03a

NYT WorldSerbian Election Underscores the Region’s Long Political Limbo

5:01a

Al JazeeraFighting rages in Yemen’s Taiz as UN warns nearly 260,000 now displaced

5:00a

BBC BusinessBarclays cutting 5,000 jobs as it increases reliance on AI

4:58a

State headlines

The races named today

Axios"Stop whining": What Vance's take on Ohio ad controversy means for 2028

5:00a

NPRBacklash from attack ad upends Ohio gubernatorial race

4:57a

Ohio Capital JournalCommentary: Ohio lawmakers cut state share of public school funding from 47% in 1999 to a projected 32% in 2027

3:35a

Ohio Capital JournalIn 6 states, ballots include bans on noncitizen voting

3:20a

Ohio Capital JournalRI Democratic Party Chair resigns after husband indicted on federal fraud charges in Ohio

3:05a

Florida PhoenixCommentary: To avoid becoming roadkill, Florida panthers need critter crossings

12:05a

Previous editions

79 days

October 22Russia pounds Ukraine with missiles and drones, hours after agreeing to peace talks

October 21Sabato's Crystal Ball Moves 28 House Races Toward Dems

October 20Amy Acton pushes back on an unsigned ad in which her estranged mother calls her a liar, in Ohio's governor race

October 19Trump slams Zelenskyy amid Russia sanctions rift and says ‘somebody else’ should negotiate for Ukraine - live

October 18EU tariffs aimed at China hitting Ukraine, steel boss says

October 17A quiet day. The closest race: Wisconsin's 1st district, Steil (R) 50 percent

October 16A quiet day. The closest race: Wisconsin's 1st district, Steil (R) 50 percent

October 15Oil up 9 percent to $104.71 a barrel

October 14Iran war updates: Five killed, 16 hurt in Houthi attack on palace in Aden

October 13Minnesota's 1st district: 11 points toward Johnson (D), now Finstad (R) 64 percent

October 12Ukraine's Zelenskyy says it's "increasingly evident that Russia is unwilling to accept an energy ceasefire"

October 11Alaska Senate is no longer a coin flip: Peltola (D) is favored, 59 percent

October 10Kentucky's 6th district is a coin flip again: Alvarado (R) 51 percent

October 9Iran calls U.S. response "insufficient" amid stalled talks to end the war

October 8Kentucky's 6th district is no longer a coin flip: Dembo (D) is favored, 56 percent

October 7Iran war updates: Trump says no attack before vote; talks ongoing

October 6Wall Street Climbs as Treasury Yields and Oil Prices Pause

October 5Iran-backed Houthis deny losing ground in Yemen as oil prices ease despite fierce fighting

October 4Iran talking peace, but unwilling to bend to Trump, US nuclear demands | Live Updates from Fox News Digital

October 3Alaska Senate is no longer a coin flip: Peltola (D) is favored, 56 percent

October 2Kentucky's 6th district is a coin flip again: Alvarado (R) 54 percent

October 1Virginia's 1st district: 18 points toward Taylor (D), now Taylor (D) 57 percent

September 30Iran war updates: US deploys aircraft carrier strike group to Middle East

September 29Wisconsin's 1st district is a coin flip again: Steil (R) 52 percent

September 28Montana's 1st district is no longer a coin flip: Flint (R) is favored, 63 percent

September 27Bessent says Iran will have 'nothing left to trade' within two weeks as oil lifeline dries up

September 26Alaska Senate: 6 points toward Peltola (D), now Sullivan (R) 56 percent

September 25Oil down 11 percent to $85.23 a barrel

September 24Maine's 2nd district is no longer a coin flip: Dunlap (D) is favored, 67 percent

September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 percent

September 22Iowa Senate is a coin flip again: Turek (D) 53 percent

September 21Virginia's 1st district: 26 points toward Wittman (R), now Wittman (R) 67 percent

September 20Texas Senate is a coin flip again: Talarico (D) 54 percent

September 19Iran FM departs for New York for UN General Assembly meeting amid tensions

September 18Texas Senate: 7 points toward Talarico (D), now Talarico (D) 63 percent

September 17The Ohio special Senate race: 9 points toward Brown (D), now Brown (D) 69 percent

September 16Iowa Senate: 5 points toward Hinson (R), now Hinson (R) 63 percent

September 15Gas, regular up 4 percent on the week to $4.32

September 14Nebraska Senate: 18 points toward Osborn (I), now Ricketts (R) 66 percent

September 13Trump says oil is flowing through Hormuz, US open to engaging with Iran

September 12Montana's 1st district is a coin flip again: Flint (R) 54 percent

September 11Ukraine war latest: Russia targets Kyiv gas stations for second day

September 10Democrats now favored for the Senate: 53 percent, from 45

September 9Texas Senate is a coin flip again: Paxton (R) 52 percent

September 8Diesel up 7 percent on the week to $5.97

September 7Diesel up 7 percent on the week to $5.97

September 6Iran war updates: Hormuz traffic falls as US insists waterway ‘fully open’

September 5Iran war updates: Tehran to announce restricted zone near Hormuz Strait

September 4Florida's 9th district: 9 points toward Green (R), now Green (R) 68 percent

September 3Iran prefers conflict with US over peace to suppress internal uprising, human rights activist warns

September 2Texas's 35th district is no longer a coin flip: Cruz (R) is favored, 61 percent

September 1Oil up 5 percent to $91.48 a barrel

August 31Pennsylvania's 1st district is no longer a coin flip: Harvie (D) is favored, 55 percent

August 30Texas Senate is no longer a coin flip: Paxton (R) is favored, 58 percent

August 29Strait of Hormuz traffic remains below normal as US sanctions pressure Iran | Live Updates from Fox News Digital

August 28Iran war updates: Iran pledges to stand firm against ‘unjust’ US sanctions

August 27Texas Senate is a coin flip again: Paxton (R) 51 percent

August 26Democrats' Senate odds down 6 to 39 percent

August 25Diesel up 4 percent on the week to $5.65

August 24Diesel up 4 percent on the week to $5.65

August 23Oil prices fall ahead of US announcements on new Iran sanctions

August 22Iran updates: Iranian parliament advances plans for Hormuz service fees

August 21Iran updates: Tehran says US sanctions ‘declaration of war’ on all nations

August 20Florida's 22nd district is a coin flip again: Dandiya (D) 52 percent

August 19Michigan Senate is no longer a coin flip: El-Sayed (D) is favored, 69 percent

August 18Michigan Senate: 5 points toward El-Sayed (D), now El-Sayed (D) 54 percent

August 17Alaska Senate: 8 points toward Peltola (D), now Sullivan (R) 64 percent

August 16The Ohio special Senate race: 8 points toward Husted (R), now Brown (D) 57 percent

August 15Michigan Senate is a coin flip again: Rogers (R) 51 percent

August 14Iran war updates: Iran says Hormuz under its control, Israel bombs Lebanon

August 13Ohio's 7th district is no longer a coin flip: Miller (R) is favored, 71 percent

August 12Trump says U.S. has "total control" over Strait of Hormuz and might "keep it"

August 11Ukraine war latest: Russian plans for mobilization 'confirmed by internal documents,' Zelensky says

August 10Ohio's 7th district is a coin flip again: Miller (R) 50 percent

August 9Iran war updates: Trump to demand compensation for Tehran’s ‘conflicts’

August 8Iran war updates: Trump says US ‘only semi-negotiating’ ⁠with Tehran

August 7Iran war updates: IRGC says Hormuz to open after US accepts conditions

August 6Iowa's 2nd district is no longer a coin flip: Mitchell (R) is favored, 57 percent

August 5The record begins: Senate 42, House 78

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