Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ October 7October 9 ▶

[ The daily brief // October 8 · replayed ]

Kentucky's 6th district: 9 points toward Dembo, now Dembo 56 percent

The day's story, written by the model's own rules from what moved on the board. When Lilly has something to say, her words come first.

▸ The board // October 8

Senate

67%

chance of Democratic control

−1 since the day before

Expected 52 D · likely 47 to 56

House

91%

chance of a Democratic majority

no change

Expected 241 D · likely 218 to 267

▸ What moved

Kentucky's 6th district: 9 points toward Dembo, now Dembo 56 percent. A new Change Research poll had Dembo +9, 524 likely voters.

Texas Senate: 4 points toward Paxton, now Talarico 64 percent. A new University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov poll had even, 850 likely voters.

Iowa Senate: 3 points toward Hinson, now Turek 51 percent. A new CNN/SSRS poll had Hinson +2, 801 likely voters.

The Ohio special Senate race: 3 points toward Brown, now Brown 72 percent. A new co/efficient poll had Husted +1, 925 likely voters.

Kentucky's 6th district ▸Texas Senate ▸Iowa Senate ▸The Ohio special Senate race ▸

▸ Lines crossed

Kentucky's 6th district is no longer a coin flip: Dembo is favored, 56 percent.

Kentucky's 6th district ▸

▸ New polls

11 new polls since the day before. The weightiest:

co/efficient (B), the Ohio special Senate race: Husted +1, 925 likely voters.

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov (A-), Texas Senate: even, 850 likely voters.

CNN/SSRS, Iowa Senate: Hinson +2, 801 likely voters.

CNN/SSRS, the Ohio special Senate race: Brown +6, 760 likely voters.

St. Pete Polls (C+), the Florida special Senate race: Moody +2, 836 likely voters.

The Ohio special Senate race ▸Texas Senate ▸Iowa Senate ▸The Ohio special Senate race ▸The Florida special Senate race ▸

▸ Coin flips

8 races under 55 percent either way: Wisconsin's 3rd district, Florida's 22nd district, Iowa Senate, Texas's 35th district, Alabama's 2nd district, Wisconsin's 1st district, Florida's 7th district, Alaska Senate.

Wisconsin's 3rd district ▸Florida's 22nd district ▸Iowa Senate ▸Texas's 35th district ▸Alabama's 2nd district ▸Wisconsin's 1st district ▸Florida's 7th district ▸Alaska Senate ▸

▸ The clock

26 days to November 3.

▸ Every day // 75 briefs, newest first

Days marked replayed were run after the fact with today's rules on that day's polls. The live record starts October 16.

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