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Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Sunday, October 25
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9 days to November 3
Today's story
Lilly PredictsStelson
Democrat
Perry
Republican
Pennsylvania's 10th district is a coin flip again: Perry (R) 52 in 100
Stelson
Democrat
Perry
Republican
A new New York Times/Siena University poll of 404 likely voters had the race even. Perry (R) is now favored, 52 in 100, up from 41.
This morning's top story
2 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 63 in 100 for the Senate, 91 for the House and 66 for the governors
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63 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
91 in 100
Steady since yesterday
Pennsylvania's 10th: 11 toward Perry, Perry 41 → 52. Why: a new The New York Times poll, even.
66 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
LILLY SAYS: In 100 means out of a hundred elections like this one. Sixty three is a lean, not a lock; a coin flip is anything near fifty.
Too close to call
Polls
Pennsylvania's 8th districtDecidingThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 402 likely voters
D+4
Pennsylvania's 10th districtDecidingThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 404 likely voters
Even
Pennsylvania's 7th districtThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 401 likely voters
D+5
Pennsylvania's 1st districtThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 400 likely voters
D+2
South Dakota SenateMason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. (A-) · 500 likely voters
R+19
The California governor's raceMcLaughlin & Associates (B/C) · 800 likely voters
D+16
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The Big Four, race by race ▾
The world's top story
US Equity Futures Climb as Crude Oil Price Dips: Markets Wrap
Bloomberg Markets reported it at 6:09 pm Eastern. Read it ▸
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
EndorsementThe Hill
Acton wins Cleveland Plain Dealer endorsement in Ohio governor’s race
EndorsementCleveland.com
Plain Dealer/cleveland.com endorses Amy Acton for Ohio governor
MemoAnchorage Daily News
Iran in ‘advanced stages’ of plots to kill U.S. officials abroad, memo warns
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The front page
Anchorage Daily NewsOpinion: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the candidate who takes AI seriously
The world and the money
Bloomberg MarketsUS Equity Futures Climb as Crude Oil Price Dips: Markets Wrap
PBS NewsHour WorldSerbia's strongman leader Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movement in seismic political shift
Wall Street Journal WorldOpinion | Viktor Orbán, U.N. Secretary-General?
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Previous editions
October 25Pennsylvania's 10th district is a coin flip again: Perry (R) 52 in 100
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard