Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 percent

T-minus 16 days

[ The daily brief // September 23 · replayed ]

The day's story, written by the model's own rules from what moved on the board. When Lilly has something to say, her words come first.

▸ The board // September 23

Senate

64%

chance of Democratic control

+5 since the day before

Expected 52 D · likely 47 to 56

House

87%

chance of a Democratic majority

+2 since the day before

Expected 238 D · likely 215 to 263

▸ What moved

Texas Senate: 13 points toward Talarico, now Talarico 68 percent. A new Marist University poll had Talarico +6, 1,139 registered voters.

The Ohio special Senate race: 3 points toward Brown, now Brown 63 percent.

Florida's 4th district: 2 points toward Holloway, now Bean 70 percent.

Kansas Senate: 2 points toward Hamilton, now Marshall 71 percent.

Texas Senate ▸The Ohio special Senate race ▸Florida's 4th district ▸Kansas Senate ▸

▸ Lines crossed

Texas Senate is no longer a coin flip: Talarico is favored, 68 percent.

Texas's 35th district is a coin flip again: Cruz 53 percent.

Florida's 7th district is a coin flip again: Elijah 55 percent.

Maine's 2nd district is a coin flip again: LePage 54 percent.

Texas Senate ▸Texas's 35th district ▸Florida's 7th district ▸Maine's 2nd district ▸

▸ New polls

6 new polls since the day before. The weightiest:

YouGov (B), Georgia Senate: Ossoff +10, 3,301 likely voters.

Marist University (A-), Texas Senate: Talarico +6, 1,139 registered voters.

co/efficient (B), Michigan Senate: even, 843 likely voters.

YouGov (B), North Carolina Senate: Cooper +13, 3,511 likely voters.

Quantus Insights (B/C), North Carolina Senate: Cooper +5, 686 likely voters.

Georgia Senate ▸Texas Senate ▸Michigan Senate ▸North Carolina Senate ▸North Carolina Senate ▸

▸ Coin flips

11 races under 55 percent either way: Montana's 1st district, Iowa's 2nd district, Florida's 22nd district, Texas's 35th district, Wisconsin's 3rd district, Iowa's 1st district, Pennsylvania's 10th district, Maine's 2nd district and more.

Montana's 1st district ▸Iowa's 2nd district ▸Florida's 22nd district ▸Texas's 35th district ▸Wisconsin's 3rd district ▸Iowa's 1st district ▸Pennsylvania's 10th district ▸Maine's 2nd district ▸

▸ The clock

41 days to November 3.

▸ Every day // 75 briefs, newest first

October 18Iowa Senate has a new favorite: Hinson, 51 percent
October 17Iowa Senate has a new favorite: Turek, 51 percent
October 16Montana Senate: 13 points toward Bodnar, now Alme 85 percent
October 15Iowa Senate: 3 points toward Turek, now Turek 52 percentreplayed
October 14Virginia's 2nd district: 17 points toward Luria, now Luria 75 percent
October 13Minnesota's 1st district: 11 points toward Johnson, now Finstad 64 percentreplayed
October 12Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. (A-), Minnesota Senate: Flanagan +4, 800 likely voters; Georgia's 7th district moved 3replayed
October 11Alaska Senate: 5 points toward Peltola, now Peltola 59 percentreplayed
October 10Kentucky's 6th district: 7 points toward Alvarado, now Alvarado 51 percentreplayed
October 9New York's 21st district: 20 points toward Gendebien, now Constantino 73 percentreplayed
October 8Kentucky's 6th district: 9 points toward Dembo, now Dembo 56 percentreplayed
October 7Nebraska Senate: 6 points toward Ricketts, now Ricketts 76 percentreplayed
October 6Florida's 16th district: 10 points toward Gruters, now Gruters 72 percentreplayed
October 5Iowa's 1st district is a coin flip again: Bohannan 55 percentreplayed
October 4Alaska Senate is a coin flip again: Peltola 55 percentreplayed
October 3Alaska Senate: 10 points toward Peltola, now Peltola 56 percentreplayed
October 2Kentucky's 6th district: 11 points toward Dembo, now Alvarado 54 percentreplayed
October 1Virginia's 1st district: 18 points toward Taylor, now Taylor 57 percentreplayed
September 30Minnesota Senate: 5 points toward Tafoya, now Flanagan 84 percentreplayed
September 29Democrats' Senate odds up 3 to 68 percentreplayed
September 28Ohio's 15th district: 12 points toward Leonard, now Carey 70 percentreplayed
September 27A quiet day: Senate 67, House 88, 9 coin flipsreplayed
September 26Alaska Senate: 6 points toward Peltola, now Sullivan 56 percentreplayed
September 25Kansas Senate: 8 points toward Marshall, now Marshall 70 percentreplayed
September 24Maine's 2nd district: 22 points toward Dunlap, now Dunlap 67 percentreplayed
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 percentreplayed
September 22Democrats' Senate odds up 4 to 59 percentreplayed
September 21Virginia's 1st district: 26 points toward Wittman, now Wittman 67 percentreplayed
September 20Texas Senate: 8 points toward Paxton, now Talarico 54 percentreplayed
September 19Trafalgar Group (B), Iowa Senate: Hinson +2, 1,089 likely voters; the board barely movedreplayed
September 18Kansas Senate: 12 points toward Hamilton, now Marshall 74 percentreplayed
September 17The Ohio special Senate race: 9 points toward Brown, now Brown 69 percentreplayed
September 16South Carolina's 1st district: 11 points toward Honeycutt, now Honeycutt 79 percentreplayed
September 15North Carolina's 1st district: 6 points toward Davis, now Davis 74 percentreplayed
September 14Democrats' Senate odds up 4 to 57 percentreplayed
September 13Nevada's 2nd district: 5 points toward Benitez-Thompson, now Flippo 74 percentreplayed
September 12Montana's 1st district: 9 points toward Forstag, now Flint 54 percentreplayed
September 11The Florida special Senate race: 9 points toward Moody, now Moody 72 percentreplayed
September 10Democrats' Senate odds up 8 to 53 percentreplayed
September 9Democrats' Senate odds up 3 to 45 percentreplayed
September 8Nevada's 2nd district: 19 points toward Flippo, now Flippo 81 percentreplayed
September 7A quiet day: Senate 42, House 78, 11 coin flipsreplayed
September 6A quiet day: Senate 42, House 78, 11 coin flipsreplayed
September 5A quiet day: Senate 42, House 78, 11 coin flipsreplayed
September 4Florida's 9th district: 9 points toward Green, now Green 68 percentreplayed
September 3Emerson College (A), Iowa Senate: Hinson +4, 750 likely voters; the board barely movedreplayed
September 2Texas's 35th district: 15 points toward Cruz, now Cruz 61 percentreplayed
September 1Hart Research Associates (A-), Florida's 13th district: Gray +1; the board barely movedreplayed
August 31Pennsylvania's 1st district: 9 points toward Harvie, now Harvie 55 percentreplayed
August 30Texas Senate: 8 points toward Paxton, now Paxton 58 percentreplayed
August 29A quiet day: Senate 45, House 80, 11 coin flipsreplayed
August 28Kansas Senate: 5 points toward Hamilton, now Marshall 84 percentreplayed
August 27Democrats' Senate odds up 4 to 43 percentreplayed
August 26Democrats' Senate odds down 6 to 39 percentreplayed
August 25YouGov (B), Texas Senate: Talarico +3, 1,200 registered voters; the board barely movedreplayed
August 24A quiet day: Senate 46, House 77, 13 coin flipsreplayed
August 23A quiet day: Senate 46, House 77, 13 coin flipsreplayed
August 22North Carolina Senate: 5 points toward Whatley, now Cooper 81 percentreplayed
August 21High Point University (B/C), North Carolina Senate: Cooper +5, 660 likely voters; North Carolina Senate moved 3replayed
August 20Florida's 22nd district: 15 points toward Dandiya, now Dandiya 52 percentreplayed
August 19Michigan Senate: 15 points toward El-Sayed, now El-Sayed 69 percentreplayed
August 18Arkansas's 2nd district: 9 points toward Jones, now Hill 78 percentreplayed
August 17Alaska Senate: 8 points toward Peltola, now Sullivan 64 percentreplayed
August 16The Ohio special Senate race: 8 points toward Husted, now Brown 57 percentreplayed
August 15Michigan Senate: 6 points toward El-Sayed, now Rogers 51 percentreplayed
August 14The Ohio special Senate race: 4 points toward Brown, now Brown 65 percentreplayed
August 13Ohio's 7th district: 19 points toward Miller, now Miller 71 percentreplayed
August 12Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A-), Maine Senate: Jackson +2, 1,000 registered voters; Maine Senate moved 2replayed
August 11Michigan's 7th district: 3 points toward Barrett, now Barrett 61 percentreplayed
August 10Ohio's 7th district: 30 points toward Poindexter, now Miller 50 percentreplayed
August 9A quiet day: Senate 41, House 80, 9 coin flipsreplayed
August 8A quiet day: Senate 41, House 80, 9 coin flipsreplayed
August 7Kentucky's 6th district: 6 points toward Dembo, now Alvarado 75 percentreplayed
August 6Iowa Senate: 5 points toward Hinson, now Hinson 68 percentreplayed
August 5The record begins: Senate 42, House 78replayed

Days marked replayed were run after the fact with today's rules on that day's polls. The live record starts October 16.

◀ Back to the forecast