Live results here election night Nov 3 · 8 days
Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Monday, October 26
Morning 5:31 am Afternoon 1:51 pm Evening 6:01 pm
8 days to November 3
Today's story
Lilly PredictsFord
Democrat
Lombardo
Republican
The Nevada governor's race is no longer a coin flip: Lombardo (R) is favored, 59 in 100
Ford
Democrat
Lombardo
Republican
A new Concord Public Opinion Partners poll of 565 likely voters had Lombardo (R) up 1. Lombardo is now favored, 59 in 100, up from 48.
This morning's top story
The board holds: Democrats 63 in 100 for the Senate, 91 for the House and 66 for the governors
Results by email
Election night, live
Get an email when the results start coming in on November 3, and one the morning after with what happened. Then the daily brief, if you want it. Free, and your address stays with us: it is never shared or sold.
Election night, then the morning brief · Unsubscribe anytime
63 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
91 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
65 in 100
Republicans +1 since yesterday
The Nevada governor's race: 11 toward Lombardo, Lombardo 48 → 59. Why: a new Concord Public Opinion Partners poll, Lombardo (R) +1.
LILLY SAYS: In 100 means out of a hundred elections like this one. Sixty three is a lean, not a lock; a coin flip is anything near fifty.
Too close to call
Polls
Nebraska SenateConcord Public Opinion Partners (A/B) · 500 likely voters
D+7
The Nebraska governor's raceConcord Public Opinion Partners (A/B) · 500 likely voters
D+3
The Nevada governor's raceConcord Public Opinion Partners (A/B) · 565 likely voters
R+1
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The Big Four, race by race ▾
The world's top story
Netanyahu Pushed for Attack on Iran Ahead of Israeli Election, Officials Say
NYT World reported it at 5:44 pm Eastern. Read it ▸
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
EndorsementThe Guardian
Ex-South Carolina governors endorse Democrat Annie Andrews in Senate race
EndorsementThe Guardian
ScandalMichigan Advance
Democrats ask TV stations to take down James ad amid campaign finance allegations
EndorsementFlorida Politics
Alliance for Retired Americans endorses Leela Gray over Anna Paulina Luna in CD 13 race
MemoSemafor
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The front page
The world and the money
The Hill BusinessRepublicans face a midterm reckoning over prices at the pump
Wall Street Journal WorldOpinion | Elon Musk, Starlink and Vladimir Putin
Wall Street Journal MarketsEnergy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk
Bloomberg MarketsNucor Profit Beats Estimates as Higher Steel Prices Lift Results
Get this every morning
One email each morning by 6 a.m. Eastern. Unsubscribe anytime. Your address stays with us: it is never shared or sold.
Previous editions
October 26The Nevada governor's race is no longer a coin flip: Lombardo (R) is favored, 59 in 100
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard