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Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Friday, October 30
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4 days to November 3
Today's story
Lilly PredictsHamilton
Democrat
Marshall
Republican
Kansas Senate is a coin flip again: Hamilton (D) 51 in 100
Hamilton
Democrat
Marshall
Republican
A new Emerson College poll of 800 likely voters had Hamilton (D) up 2. Hamilton is now favored, 51 in 100, up from 40.
What moved since yesterday
Villegas (D), 73 to 91 in 100 · USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab poll
Hamilton (D), 40 to 51 in 100 · Emerson College poll
Holscher (D), 78 to 68 in 100 · Emerson College poll
Peltola (D), 57 to 54 in 100 · Alaska Survey Research poll
Davis (D), 96 to 91 in 100 · Hart Research Associates poll
This morning's top story
The board holds: Democrats 67 in 100 for the Senate, 92 for the House and 70 for the governors
69 in 100
Democrats +2 since yesterday
Kansas Senate: 11 toward Hamilton, Hamilton 40 → 51. Why: a new Emerson College poll, Hamilton (D) +2.
92 in 100
Steady since yesterday
California's 22nd: 19 toward Villegas, Villegas 73 → 91. Why: a new USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab poll, Villegas (D) +10.
70 in 100
Steady since yesterday
The Kansas governor's race: 10 toward Holscher, Masterson 78 → 68. Why: a new Emerson College poll, Masterson (R) +5.
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Polls
Kansas SenateDecidingEmerson College (A) · 800 likely voters
D+2
Kansas SenateDecidingThe Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government (B/C) · 801 likely voters
D+9
The Florida governor's raceInsiderAdvantage (B+) · 1,200 likely voters
R+4
The Florida special Senate raceInsiderAdvantage (B+) · 1,200 likely voters
R+6
The Kansas governor's raceEmerson College (A) · 800 likely voters
R+5
The Texas governor's raceQuantus Insights (B/C) · 1,214 likely voters
R+5
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The world's top story
Treasury says Iran's economy cratering, inflation at 90 percent
The Hill Business reported it at 5:53 pm Eastern. Read it ▸
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
EndorsementIowa Capital Dispatch
Iowa Farmers Union pushes for Turek, the first federal candidate the group has endorsed in years
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The front page
Washington ExaminerDOJ insists it just wants Alaska ballots preserved and isn’t seeking to change votes
Iowa Capital DispatchTrump loses appeals over California ballots, Homeland Security operations
The world and the money
The Hill BusinessTreasury says Iran's economy cratering, inflation at 90 percent
Wall Street Journal WorldEU, Canada Leaders Set Out Path to ‘Associate Membership’ Arrangement
Bloomberg MarketsBurger King US President on Sales Turnaround
Wall Street Journal MarketsCracks in AI Trade Power Sharp Tech Selloff
CBS MoneyWatchNasdaq sheds more than 700 points as tech stocks slump
Previous editions
October 31I'm reconsidering Alaska
October 30Kansas Senate is a coin flip again: Hamilton (D) 51 in 100
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard
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