T-minus 16 days
[ The daily brief // August 18 · replayed ]
Arkansas's 2nd district: 9 points toward Jones, now Hill 78 percent
The day's story, written by the model's own rules from what moved on the board. When Lilly has something to say, her words come first.
▸ The board // August 18
Senate
55%
chance of Republican control
no change
Expected 50 D · likely 46 to 54
House
77%
chance of a Democratic majority
no change
Expected 231 D · likely 211 to 254
▸ What moved
Arkansas's 2nd district: 9 points toward Jones, now Hill 78 percent. A new Hendrix College poll had Jones +4, 1,112 likely voters.
North Carolina Senate: 6 points toward Whatley, now Cooper 84 percent.
Michigan Senate: 5 points toward El-Sayed, now El-Sayed 54 percent. A new TIPP Insights poll had El-Sayed +3, 1,215 likely voters.
Virginia's 5th district: 4 points toward McGuire, now McGuire 89 percent. A new Expedition Strategies poll had McGuire +3, 602 likely voters.
Arkansas's 2nd district ▸North Carolina Senate ▸Michigan Senate ▸Virginia's 5th district ▸
▸ Lines crossed
Michigan Senate has a new favorite: El-Sayed, 54 percent.
▸ New polls
6 new polls since the day before. The weightiest:
J.L. Partners (B/C), Arkansas Senate: Cotton +16, 803 likely voters.
InsiderAdvantage (B+), Georgia Senate: Ossoff +8, 800 likely voters.
Hendrix College (B/C), Arkansas Senate: Shoffner +3, 1,217 likely voters.
Hendrix College (B/C), Arkansas's 2nd district: Jones +4, 1,112 likely voters.
TIPP Insights (A), Michigan Senate: El-Sayed +3, 1,215 likely voters.
Arkansas Senate ▸Georgia Senate ▸Arkansas Senate ▸Arkansas's 2nd district ▸Michigan Senate ▸
▸ Coin flips
12 races under 55 percent either way: Virginia's 2nd district, Michigan's 10th district, Iowa's 3rd district, Texas's 35th district, Pennsylvania's 7th district, Virginia's 1st district, Iowa's 1st district, Arizona's 6th district and more.
Virginia's 2nd district ▸Michigan's 10th district ▸Iowa's 3rd district ▸Texas's 35th district ▸Pennsylvania's 7th district ▸Virginia's 1st district ▸Iowa's 1st district ▸Arizona's 6th district ▸
▸ The clock
77 days to November 3.
▸ Every day // 75 briefs, newest first
- October 18Iowa Senate has a new favorite: Hinson, 51 percent
- October 17Iowa Senate has a new favorite: Turek, 51 percent
- October 16Montana Senate: 13 points toward Bodnar, now Alme 85 percent
- October 15Iowa Senate: 3 points toward Turek, now Turek 52 percentreplayed
- October 14Virginia's 2nd district: 17 points toward Luria, now Luria 75 percent
- October 13Minnesota's 1st district: 11 points toward Johnson, now Finstad 64 percentreplayed
- October 12Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. (A-), Minnesota Senate: Flanagan +4, 800 likely voters; Georgia's 7th district moved 3replayed
- October 11Alaska Senate: 5 points toward Peltola, now Peltola 59 percentreplayed
- October 10Kentucky's 6th district: 7 points toward Alvarado, now Alvarado 51 percentreplayed
- October 9New York's 21st district: 20 points toward Gendebien, now Constantino 73 percentreplayed
- October 8Kentucky's 6th district: 9 points toward Dembo, now Dembo 56 percentreplayed
- October 7Nebraska Senate: 6 points toward Ricketts, now Ricketts 76 percentreplayed
- October 6Florida's 16th district: 10 points toward Gruters, now Gruters 72 percentreplayed
- October 5Iowa's 1st district is a coin flip again: Bohannan 55 percentreplayed
- October 4Alaska Senate is a coin flip again: Peltola 55 percentreplayed
- October 3Alaska Senate: 10 points toward Peltola, now Peltola 56 percentreplayed
- October 2Kentucky's 6th district: 11 points toward Dembo, now Alvarado 54 percentreplayed
- October 1Virginia's 1st district: 18 points toward Taylor, now Taylor 57 percentreplayed
- September 30Minnesota Senate: 5 points toward Tafoya, now Flanagan 84 percentreplayed
- September 29Democrats' Senate odds up 3 to 68 percentreplayed
- September 28Ohio's 15th district: 12 points toward Leonard, now Carey 70 percentreplayed
- September 27A quiet day: Senate 67, House 88, 9 coin flipsreplayed
- September 26Alaska Senate: 6 points toward Peltola, now Sullivan 56 percentreplayed
- September 25Kansas Senate: 8 points toward Marshall, now Marshall 70 percentreplayed
- September 24Maine's 2nd district: 22 points toward Dunlap, now Dunlap 67 percentreplayed
- September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 percentreplayed
- September 22Democrats' Senate odds up 4 to 59 percentreplayed
- September 21Virginia's 1st district: 26 points toward Wittman, now Wittman 67 percentreplayed
- September 20Texas Senate: 8 points toward Paxton, now Talarico 54 percentreplayed
- September 19Trafalgar Group (B), Iowa Senate: Hinson +2, 1,089 likely voters; the board barely movedreplayed
- September 18Kansas Senate: 12 points toward Hamilton, now Marshall 74 percentreplayed
- September 17The Ohio special Senate race: 9 points toward Brown, now Brown 69 percentreplayed
- September 16South Carolina's 1st district: 11 points toward Honeycutt, now Honeycutt 79 percentreplayed
- September 15North Carolina's 1st district: 6 points toward Davis, now Davis 74 percentreplayed
- September 14Democrats' Senate odds up 4 to 57 percentreplayed
- September 13Nevada's 2nd district: 5 points toward Benitez-Thompson, now Flippo 74 percentreplayed
- September 12Montana's 1st district: 9 points toward Forstag, now Flint 54 percentreplayed
- September 11The Florida special Senate race: 9 points toward Moody, now Moody 72 percentreplayed
- September 10Democrats' Senate odds up 8 to 53 percentreplayed
- September 9Democrats' Senate odds up 3 to 45 percentreplayed
- September 8Nevada's 2nd district: 19 points toward Flippo, now Flippo 81 percentreplayed
- September 7A quiet day: Senate 42, House 78, 11 coin flipsreplayed
- September 6A quiet day: Senate 42, House 78, 11 coin flipsreplayed
- September 5A quiet day: Senate 42, House 78, 11 coin flipsreplayed
- September 4Florida's 9th district: 9 points toward Green, now Green 68 percentreplayed
- September 3Emerson College (A), Iowa Senate: Hinson +4, 750 likely voters; the board barely movedreplayed
- September 2Texas's 35th district: 15 points toward Cruz, now Cruz 61 percentreplayed
- September 1Hart Research Associates (A-), Florida's 13th district: Gray +1; the board barely movedreplayed
- August 31Pennsylvania's 1st district: 9 points toward Harvie, now Harvie 55 percentreplayed
- August 30Texas Senate: 8 points toward Paxton, now Paxton 58 percentreplayed
- August 29A quiet day: Senate 45, House 80, 11 coin flipsreplayed
- August 28Kansas Senate: 5 points toward Hamilton, now Marshall 84 percentreplayed
- August 27Democrats' Senate odds up 4 to 43 percentreplayed
- August 26Democrats' Senate odds down 6 to 39 percentreplayed
- August 25YouGov (B), Texas Senate: Talarico +3, 1,200 registered voters; the board barely movedreplayed
- August 24A quiet day: Senate 46, House 77, 13 coin flipsreplayed
- August 23A quiet day: Senate 46, House 77, 13 coin flipsreplayed
- August 22North Carolina Senate: 5 points toward Whatley, now Cooper 81 percentreplayed
- August 21High Point University (B/C), North Carolina Senate: Cooper +5, 660 likely voters; North Carolina Senate moved 3replayed
- August 20Florida's 22nd district: 15 points toward Dandiya, now Dandiya 52 percentreplayed
- August 19Michigan Senate: 15 points toward El-Sayed, now El-Sayed 69 percentreplayed
- August 18Arkansas's 2nd district: 9 points toward Jones, now Hill 78 percentreplayed
- August 17Alaska Senate: 8 points toward Peltola, now Sullivan 64 percentreplayed
- August 16The Ohio special Senate race: 8 points toward Husted, now Brown 57 percentreplayed
- August 15Michigan Senate: 6 points toward El-Sayed, now Rogers 51 percentreplayed
- August 14The Ohio special Senate race: 4 points toward Brown, now Brown 65 percentreplayed
- August 13Ohio's 7th district: 19 points toward Miller, now Miller 71 percentreplayed
- August 12Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A-), Maine Senate: Jackson +2, 1,000 registered voters; Maine Senate moved 2replayed
- August 11Michigan's 7th district: 3 points toward Barrett, now Barrett 61 percentreplayed
- August 10Ohio's 7th district: 30 points toward Poindexter, now Miller 50 percentreplayed
- August 9A quiet day: Senate 41, House 80, 9 coin flipsreplayed
- August 8A quiet day: Senate 41, House 80, 9 coin flipsreplayed
- August 7Kentucky's 6th district: 6 points toward Dembo, now Alvarado 75 percentreplayed
- August 6Iowa Senate: 5 points toward Hinson, now Hinson 68 percentreplayed
- August 5The record begins: Senate 42, House 78replayed
Days marked replayed were run after the fact with today's rules on that day's polls. The live record starts October 16.