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Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Tuesday, October 27
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7 days to November 3
Today's story
Lilly PredictsFord
Democrat
Lombardo
Republican
The Nevada governor's race is a coin flip again: Ford (D) 54 in 100
Ford
Democrat
Lombardo
Republican
A new Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies poll of 950 likely voters had Ford (D) up 4. Ford is now favored, 54 in 100, up from 41.
This morning's top story
4 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 63 in 100 for the Senate, 91 for the House and 65 for the governors
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63 in 100
Steady since yesterday
The Florida special Senate race: 3 toward Moody, Moody 83 → 87. Why: a new Echelon Insights poll, Moody (R) +8.
91 in 100
Steady since yesterday
Indiana's 5th: 4 toward Ford, Spartz 87 → 83. Why: a new Quantus Insights poll, Spartz (R) +3.
66 in 100
Democrats +1 since yesterday
The Nevada governor's race: 13 toward Ford, Ford 41 → 54. Why: a new Hart Research Associates poll, Ford (D) +4.
LILLY SAYS: In 100 means out of a hundred elections like this one. Sixty three is a lean, not a lock; a coin flip is anything near fifty.
Too close to call
Polls
Maine SenateDecidingMarist University (A-) · 1,449 likely voters
D+2
South Carolina SenateDecidingTargoz Market Research (B-) · 895 likely voters
R+1
The Maine governor's raceMarist University (A-) · 1,449 likely voters
Even
The Florida special Senate raceEchelon Insights (A-) · 515 likely voters
R+8
The California governor's raceSurveyUSA (A) · 799 likely voters
D+22
The South Carolina governor's raceTargoz Market Research (B-) · 895 likely voters
R+10
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The Big Four, race by race ▾
The world's top story
These jobs saw the biggest jump in pay in recent years
CBS MoneyWatch reported it at 5:45 pm Eastern. Read it ▸
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
DebateKansas Reflector
Debate on fuel price hikes filtering into Kansas campaigns for US Senate, governor
ScandalFox News
EndorsementMaine Morning Star
DebatePortland Press Herald
EndorsementFox News
Former rival dodges full-throated El-Sayed endorsement after bitter Senate primary
TrumpThe Guardian
MemoSemafor
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The front page
Florida PoliticsDarren Soto touts Indian River Co. accomplishments in latest ad
The world and the money
The Guardian WorldIsrael election live: exit polls project no clear winner, as anti-Netanyahu bloc leads but Likud remains biggest party
CBS MoneyWatchThese jobs saw the biggest jump in pay in recent years
Bloomberg MarketsNasdaq Texas & Walmart Discuss Corp Listing Strategies
Wall Street Journal WorldOpinion | Blaming the Jews for Everything in Michigan
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Previous editions
October 27The Nevada governor's race is a coin flip again: Ford (D) 54 in 100
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard