Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 13 days

Good morning. Today is Wednesday, October 21st, 2026. The numbers are in; the morning brief is on its way.

◀

SenateDemocrats favored

63 in 100

Democrats +1 since yesterday

HouseDemocrats favored

91 in 100

Steady since yesterday

GovernorsDemocrats favored

69 in 100

Steady since yesterday

Biggest move: the Senate, 1 point toward Democrats · Closest race: Wisconsin's 1st, 50 to 50

Behind the arrows

The races that moved in Lilly Predicts since yesterday · the arrow shows who gained
Alaska Senate10 ptsSullivan (R)64→54in 100Why: a new Data for Progress poll, Peltola (D) +2, 671 likely voters. Back to a coin flip.Florida's 7th district3 ptsElijah (R)50→53in 100Why: a new DCCC Targeting Team poll, even, 414 likely voters. The Georgia governor's race2 ptsJackson (R)54→57in 100Why: a new ActiVote poll, Jackson (R) +3, 400 likely voters. No longer a coin flip.Mississippi Senate4 ptsHyde-Smith (R)89→94in 100Why: no new poll here. Older polls count for less each day, and the national average moved. The South Carolina governor's race4 ptsWilson (R)87→91in 100Why: a new Trafalgar Group poll, Wilson (R) +16, 1,095 likely voters. Texas's 28th district3 ptsCuellar (D)94→97in 100Why: a new DCCC Targeting Team poll, Cuellar (D) +20, 536 likely voters. The Alaska governor's race3 ptsKreiss-Tomkins (D)88→91in 100Why: a new Data for Progress poll, Kreiss-Tomkins (D) +6, 629 likely voters. The Tennessee governor's race3 ptsBlackburn (R)97→94in 100Why: a new Spry Strategies poll, Blackburn (R) +12, 635 likely voters.

The Big Four today

Rating changes and the raters' own headlines
▲

Cook moves South Carolina Senate from Likely R to Lean R.

Rating change
▲

Cook moves Minnesota Senate from Likely D to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Cook moves Mississippi Senate from Solid R to Likely R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Texas's 35th district from Lean R to Tossup.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Wisconsin's 3rd district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Iowa's 2nd district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Pennsylvania's 10th district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Minnesota's 1st district from Likely R to Lean R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Iowa's 3rd district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves North Carolina's 11th district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Arizona's 6th district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Nevada's 2nd district from Likely R to Lean R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Texas's 23rd district from Likely R to Lean R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Nebraska's 1st district from Safe R to Likely R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves New York's 21st district from Likely R to Lean R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves South Carolina's 1st district from Likely R to Lean R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Colorado's 8th district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Washington's 5th district from Safe R to Likely R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Arizona's 1st district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves North Carolina's 1st district from Tossup to Lean D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Indiana's 5th district from Safe R to Likely R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Colorado's 4th district from Likely R to Lean R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves New Jersey's 2nd district from Safe R to Likely R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves New Hampshire's 1st district from Lean D to Likely D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Ohio's 1st district from Lean D to Likely D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves California's 48th district from Lean D to Likely D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Kansas's 2nd district from Safe R to Likely R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Maryland's 1st district from Safe R to Likely R.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves New York's 4th district from Lean D to Likely D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves Nevada's 3rd district from Lean D to Likely D.

Rating change
▲

Sabato moves California's 13th district from Lean D to Likely D.

Rating change

The Big Four

What the professionals say, beside Lilly Predicts
SenateHouseGovernors
Cook Political Report13 / 7 / 15211 / 21 / 20018 / 4 / 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball15 / 5 / 15220 / 12 / 20019 / 3 / 14
Inside Elections14 / 4 / 17209 / 18 / 20517 / 4 / 15
Silver Bulletin19 / 1 / 15235 / 10 / 19021 / 1 / 14
Lilly_Predicts17 / 2 / 16229 / 7 / 19921 / 0 / 15
Chance of control
Silver BulletinD 77D 95D 84
Lilly_PredictsD 63D 91D 69

Every row counts the races on the ballot: leaning Democratic / toss up / leaning Republican. The raters judge each race; for the two models, a toss up is a race where neither side is above 55 in 100, the coin flip line used across this site (Silver's House split is his own rating map). Below the gold line, the two models' chance in 100 that the favored party wins control of the chamber.

The mood of the nation

It lifts or sinks every race at once
Generic ballotDemocrats ahead

D +8.3 points

Steady since yesterday

Last 30 days: steady

Trump approvalUnderwater

37 approve / 61 disapprove

Net −24

Last 30 days: net down 3

Polls

6 new since yesterday · deciding races first

Georgia SenateDecidingActiVote · 400 likely voters

D+8

North Carolina SenateDecidingActiVote · 400 likely voters

D+14

The Alabama governor's raceCygnal Political (A) · 500 likely voters

R+11

The Tennessee governor's raceSpry Strategies (B/C) · 635 likely voters

R+12

The New York governor's raceOnMessage Inc. (A) · 1,000 likely voters

D+4

The Alaska governor's raceData for Progress (C+) · 629 likely voters

D+6

The betting markets

A check, never the lead

Senate

KalshiD 66
Lilly_PredictsD 63

House

KalshiD 91
Lilly_PredictsD 91

Top story

Lilly Predicts

Alaska Senate is a coin flip again: Sullivan (R) 54 percent

A new Data for Progress poll had Peltola (D) +2, 671 likely voters. Democrats 63 percent for the Senate, 91 for the House, 69 for the governors; little changed. 9 coin flips.

Races to watch ▸AK SenateFL-07GA Governor

Last night's top storyAssociated Press

Amy Acton pushes back on an unsigned ad in which her estranged mother calls her a liar, in Ohio's governor race

The economy

Gold means an unusual move
Gas$4.28▼ 5¢ · wk
Diesel$6.28▲ 10¢ · wk
Oil, WTI$101.91▲ 1.0% · Oct 14
Fed funds3.88%↔ flat · Oct 19
30yr mortgage7.40%↔ flat · wk
10yr Treasury5.15%▲ 0.06 · Oct 19
Sentiment51.7▼ 3.5 · Aug
Unemployment4.2%▲ 0.1 · Sep
S&P 5007,713▲ 0.3% · Oct 20
Dow52,496▲ 1.0% · Oct 20

Also today

What else moved a race

DebateWisconsin Examiner4:45a

Steil, Berman face off in debate for 1st Congressional District seat

DebateIowa Capital DispatchTue

Miller-Meeks, Bohannan spar on Iran war, rising costs in 1st District debate

TrumpBloomberg5:30a

Young Male Trump Voters Get "Blackpilled" Out of Politics

MemoFlorida Politics4:30a

In full-NIMBY leaked audio, Casey Askar supports data centers only in ‘rural areas’

MemoNew York PostTue

Hochul leads Blakeman by only 4 points in NY governor’s race, GOP internal poll claims

MemoCleveland.comTue

Democrat’s estranged mom attacks her as ‘liar’ in leaked GOP ad

This week

22 on the calendar
WedBLS Usual Weekly Earnings, third quarter 2026, 10 a.m. Eastern.
WedIA: Governor debate, Rob Sand and Zach Lahn, Iowa PBS, 7 p.m. Central.
WedKS: US Senate debate, Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton, FOX4 and Nexstar, 7 to 8 p.m. Central.
WedMI: US Senate debate, Abdul El Sayed and Mike Rogers, WXYZ, 7 p.m. Eastern.
WedMN: Governor debate, Amy Klobuchar and Lisa Demuth, FOX9 and Gray Media, 7 p.m. Central.
WedVT: Governor debate on Vermont Public, live at 7 p.m. Eastern.
WedWI: Governor: Crowley versus Tiffany. WISN, 7 p.m. Central.
ThuFL: Last day to request a mailed ballot, 5 p.m. local (the 12th day before the election; date calculated from that rule).
ThuNH: Governor forum hosted by NHPR and Granite State News Collaborative, Harpoon at Queen City Center, Manchester, 6 p.m. Eastern. Radio October 23.
FriAZ: Sign up for the early voting list at least 11 days before Election Day for a mailed ballot (date calculated; one-time request deadline not stated).
FriGA: Last day to request absentee ballot by mail for the November general election.
FriNE: Application for early voting ballot to be mailed must arrive by 6 p.m. local.
FriSC: Completed absentee application must be returned by 5 p.m. local; qualifying excuse required.
FriTX: Ballot by mail application must be received, not merely postmarked.
SatAK: Absentee by-mail application deadline is October 24 (homepage banner, no further detail).
SatFL: Required early voting period begins; counties may offer earlier optional days.
SatMI: Required early in person voting begins, the second Saturday before Election Day (date calculated); some places may open earlier.
TueFed meeting begins
TueIA: Governor debate, Rob Sand and Zach Lahn, KCRG and The Gazette, 6:30 p.m. Central.
TueKS: All counties must offer advance voting in person by today; counties were allowed to start October 14.
TueOH: Absentee ballot application must be received by county board by 8:30 p.m. local.
TuePA: Mail or civilian absentee ballot application deadline, 5 p.m. Eastern.

Who is voting

Early ballots · counts who voted, not how

Iowa93k ballots · October 20

D54/R29

Alaska12k ballots · October 20

12kNo party split

Texas496k ballots · October 20

496kNo party split

Ohio677k ballots · October 20

677kNo party split

Kansas55k ballots · October 20

D53/R34

Maine135k ballots · October 20

D52/R20

Nebraska105k ballots · October 20

D43/R40

Michigan790k ballots · October 20

790kNo party split

Florida1.4m ballots · October 20

D42/R38

Arizona524k ballots · October 20

D40/R38

Georgia1.2m ballots · October 20

1.2mNo party split

Minnesota202k ballots · October 16

202kNo party split

Mississippi30k ballots · October 19

30kNo party split

Nevada197k ballots · October 20

D31/R31

North Carolina733k ballots · October 20

D45/R21

Pennsylvania635k ballots · October 20

D68/R24

Vermont71k ballots · October 20

71kNo party split

Wisconsin191k ballots · October 20

191kNo party split

The world and the money

Wall Street Journal MarketsHealthcare Stocks Are Rallying, and Flashing a Warning for the Rest of the Market

5:30a

CNBCWitkoff heads to Russia for Putin talks as Zelenskyy insists 'nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine'

5:29a

BBC WorldRussia frees US citizen Stephen Hubbard, state media reports

5:22a

France 24🔴 Russia releases US citizen accused of fighting for Ukraine

5:21a

The Guardian WorldUS envoy Witkoff lands in Russia for talks with Vladimir Putin about Ukraine – Europe live

5:19a

Bloomberg MarketsIndian Oil to Trim Term Deals With Gulf Producers For Next Year

5:05a

Al JazeeraBlast heard in Yemen’s Aden as Houthis claim attack on military camp

5:02a

NYT BusinessFor an Experiment in Political Affirmative Action, Look to Taiwan

5:01a

State headlines

The races named today

Florida PoliticsUNF poll: Time is running out and Amendment 3 is falling short

5:30a

Florida PoliticsUNF poll gives Ashley Moody 4-point lead over Angie Nixon as turnout takes center stage

5:01a

NYTHow a Democrat Positioned Himself to Be Alaska’s Next Governor

5:00a

Florida PoliticsUNF Poll: Governor’s race too close to call in final days

5:00a

PoliticoRick Jackson is Georgia Republicans’ best hope. Donald Trump may get in the way.

5:00a

Florida PoliticsIn full-NIMBY leaked audio, Casey Askar supports data centers only in ‘rural areas’

4:30a

Previous editions

78 days

October 21Alaska Senate is a coin flip again: Sullivan (R) 54 percent

October 20Amy Acton pushes back on an unsigned ad in which her estranged mother calls her a liar, in Ohio's governor race

October 19Trump slams Zelenskyy amid Russia sanctions rift and says ‘somebody else’ should negotiate for Ukraine - live

October 18EU tariffs aimed at China hitting Ukraine, steel boss says

October 17A quiet day. The closest race: Wisconsin's 1st district, Steil (R) 50 percent

October 16A quiet day. The closest race: Wisconsin's 1st district, Steil (R) 50 percent

October 15Houthis emerge as global threat beyond Iran control amid Saudi strikes, former envoy warns

October 14Iran war updates: Five killed, 16 hurt in Houthi attack on palace in Aden

October 13Minnesota's 1st district: 11 points toward Johnson (D), now Finstad (R) 64 percent

October 12Ukraine's Zelenskyy says it's "increasingly evident that Russia is unwilling to accept an energy ceasefire"

October 11Alaska Senate is no longer a coin flip: Peltola (D) is favored, 59 percent

October 10Kentucky's 6th district is a coin flip again: Alvarado (R) 51 percent

October 9Iran calls U.S. response "insufficient" amid stalled talks to end the war

October 8Kentucky's 6th district is no longer a coin flip: Dembo (D) is favored, 56 percent

October 7Iran war updates: Trump says no attack before vote; talks ongoing

October 6Wall Street Climbs as Treasury Yields and Oil Prices Pause

October 5Iran-backed Houthis deny losing ground in Yemen as oil prices ease despite fierce fighting

October 4Iran talking peace, but unwilling to bend to Trump, US nuclear demands | Live Updates from Fox News Digital

October 3Alaska Senate is no longer a coin flip: Peltola (D) is favored, 56 percent

October 2Kentucky's 6th district is a coin flip again: Alvarado (R) 54 percent

October 1Virginia's 1st district: 18 points toward Taylor (D), now Taylor (D) 57 percent

September 30Iran war updates: US deploys aircraft carrier strike group to Middle East

September 29Wisconsin's 1st district is a coin flip again: Steil (R) 52 percent

September 28Montana's 1st district is no longer a coin flip: Flint (R) is favored, 63 percent

September 27Bessent says Iran will have 'nothing left to trade' within two weeks as oil lifeline dries up

September 26Alaska Senate: 6 points toward Peltola (D), now Sullivan (R) 56 percent

September 25Oil down 11 percent to $85.23 a barrel

September 24Maine's 2nd district is no longer a coin flip: Dunlap (D) is favored, 67 percent

September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 percent

September 22Iowa Senate is a coin flip again: Turek (D) 53 percent

September 21Virginia's 1st district: 26 points toward Wittman (R), now Wittman (R) 67 percent

September 20Texas Senate is a coin flip again: Talarico (D) 54 percent

September 19Iran FM departs for New York for UN General Assembly meeting amid tensions

September 18Texas Senate: 7 points toward Talarico (D), now Talarico (D) 63 percent

September 17The Ohio special Senate race: 9 points toward Brown (D), now Brown (D) 69 percent

September 16Iowa Senate: 5 points toward Hinson (R), now Hinson (R) 63 percent

September 15Gas, regular up 4 percent on the week to $4.32

September 14Nebraska Senate: 18 points toward Osborn (I), now Ricketts (R) 66 percent

September 13Trump says oil is flowing through Hormuz, US open to engaging with Iran

September 12Montana's 1st district is a coin flip again: Flint (R) 54 percent

September 11Ukraine war latest: Russia targets Kyiv gas stations for second day

September 10Democrats now favored for the Senate: 53 percent, from 45

September 9Texas Senate is a coin flip again: Paxton (R) 52 percent

September 8Diesel up 7 percent on the week to $5.97

September 7Diesel up 7 percent on the week to $5.97

September 6Iran war updates: Hormuz traffic falls as US insists waterway ‘fully open’

September 5Iran war updates: Tehran to announce restricted zone near Hormuz Strait

September 4Florida's 9th district: 9 points toward Green (R), now Green (R) 68 percent

September 3Iran prefers conflict with US over peace to suppress internal uprising, human rights activist warns

September 2Texas's 35th district is no longer a coin flip: Cruz (R) is favored, 61 percent

September 1Oil up 5 percent to $91.48 a barrel

August 31Pennsylvania's 1st district is no longer a coin flip: Harvie (D) is favored, 55 percent

August 30Texas Senate is no longer a coin flip: Paxton (R) is favored, 58 percent

August 29Strait of Hormuz traffic remains below normal as US sanctions pressure Iran | Live Updates from Fox News Digital

August 28Iran war updates: Iran pledges to stand firm against ‘unjust’ US sanctions

August 27Texas Senate is a coin flip again: Paxton (R) 51 percent

August 26Democrats' Senate odds down 6 to 39 percent

August 25Diesel up 4 percent on the week to $5.65

August 24Diesel up 4 percent on the week to $5.65

August 23Oil prices fall ahead of US announcements on new Iran sanctions

August 22Iran updates: Iranian parliament advances plans for Hormuz service fees

August 21Iran updates: Tehran says US sanctions ‘declaration of war’ on all nations

August 20Florida's 22nd district is a coin flip again: Dandiya (D) 52 percent

August 19Michigan Senate is no longer a coin flip: El-Sayed (D) is favored, 69 percent

August 18Michigan Senate: 5 points toward El-Sayed (D), now El-Sayed (D) 54 percent

August 17Alaska Senate: 8 points toward Peltola (D), now Sullivan (R) 64 percent

August 16The Ohio special Senate race: 8 points toward Husted (R), now Brown (D) 57 percent

August 15Michigan Senate is a coin flip again: Rogers (R) 51 percent

August 14Iran war updates: Iran says Hormuz under its control, Israel bombs Lebanon

August 13Ohio's 7th district is no longer a coin flip: Miller (R) is favored, 71 percent

August 12Trump says U.S. has "total control" over Strait of Hormuz and might "keep it"

August 11Ukraine war latest: Russian plans for mobilization 'confirmed by internal documents,' Zelensky says

August 10Ohio's 7th district is a coin flip again: Miller (R) 50 percent

August 9Iran war updates: Trump to demand compensation for Tehran’s ‘conflicts’

August 8Iran war updates: Trump says US ‘only semi-negotiating’ ⁠with Tehran

August 7Iran war updates: IRGC says Hormuz to open after US accepts conditions

August 6Iowa's 2nd district is no longer a coin flip: Mitchell (R) is favored, 57 percent

August 5The record begins: Senate 42, House 78

◀ Back to the forecast