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Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Thursday, October 29
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5 days to November 3
Today's story
Lilly PredictsFigures
Democrat
Marques
Republican
Alabama's 2nd district flips: Figures (D) now favored, 53 in 100
Figures
Democrat
Marques
Republican
A new Remington poll of 642 likely voters had Marques (R) up 2. Figures (D) is now favored, 53 in 100, up from 46.
Lilly's column // October 29
Alan Abramowitz published his final forecast at Sabato's Crystal Ball this morning. His generic ballot models have Democrats at 239 House seats and 53 Senate seats. I have them at 241 and about 52. His model and mine are built completely differently, and we land two seats apart in the House.
He is more sure of the Senate than I am: about five chances in six that Democrats take it, where I have 66 in 100. His model reads only the national margin, plus a penalty for this year's map. Mine reads each race's own polls, and race by race those polls come out about a seat short of his national math.
Texas, through nine days of early voting: sorted by which party's primaries they have voted in, early voters lean R+0.4. On the same day in 2024 they leaned R+8.9, and in 2022 R+11.5 (Theo Elections, 217 counties, unofficial). That is not a count of votes. A past Republican primary voter can still vote for Talarico, and the biggest group, 34%, has no primary history at all. But it is the most even Texas early vote of the last three elections, and it fits what the polls say: Talarico 66 in 100 for the Senate seat, Abbott 66 in 100 to keep the governorship.
And Kansas, where I part ways with my own model. I picked Hamilton on 19 October, and the model still has Marshall at 61 in 100. Today's CNN poll had Hamilton up 4 and moved the model 7 points his way, and its polling average already has Hamilton ahead by 1.7 across 14 polls. What keeps it on Marshall is how Kansas usually votes: no Democrat has won a Senate seat there in 94 years, and the model trusts that history over a narrow lead. This year, I don't. Cook and Sabato both call it a toss up. And Trump is holding a rally in Salina, Kansas, on Saturday. You don't send the president to a state you think is safe.
This morning's top story
1 new poll and the board holds: Democrats 64 in 100 for the Senate, 90 for the House and 70 for the governors
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66 in 100
Democrats +2 since yesterday
Kansas Senate: 7 toward Hamilton, Marshall 68 → 61. Why: a new CNN poll, Hamilton (D) +4.
91 in 100
Steady since yesterday
Alabama's 2nd: 7 toward Figures, Figures 46 → 53. Why: a new Remington poll, Marques (R) +2.
70 in 100
Steady since yesterday
The Kansas governor's race: 7 toward Masterson, Masterson 71 → 78. Why: a new CNN poll, Masterson (R) +5.
LILLY SAYS: In 100 means out of a hundred elections like this one. Sixty three is a lean, not a lock; a coin flip is anything near fifty.
Too close to call
Polls
Texas SenateDecidingCNN/SSRS · 923 likely voters
D+6
Kansas SenateDecidingCNN/SSRS · 838 likely voters
D+4
The Texas governor's raceCNN/SSRS · 923 likely voters
R+2
The Minnesota governor's raceState Navigate · 806 likely voters
D+10
The Kansas governor's raceCNN/SSRS · 838 likely voters
R+5
Massachusetts SenateUMass Lowell (A-) · 850 likely voters
D+29
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The Big Four, race by race ▾
The world's top story
Iran claims 4 tankers hit mines in Strait of Hormuz
CBS News World reported it at 12:58 pm Eastern. Read it ▸
Last night's story
The Texas governor's race tightens: Abbott (R) slips to 64 in 100
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
ScandalThe Guardian
ScandalWashington Examiner
House Oversight launches fraud investigation into Alaska Senate race
ScandalWashington Examiner
New York Times ‘didn’t pull their punches’ on second Dan Sullivan allegations: Sarah Bedford
ScandalAnchorage Daily News
ScandalNBC News
MemoSemafor
Who is voting
Where the energy is
Biggest swing
Kansas
+13
point swing toward Democrats
Against all of 2022's early vote, so early weeks can overstate it
Independents
North Carolina
+5
point jump in independents
More people voting
North Carolina
+36%
more early votes than the same day in 2022
LILLY SAYS: Each state below shows how many people have already voted early, which party they registered with (not how they voted), and how that stacks up against 2022, the last midterm. Democrats vote early and Republicans wait for Election Day, so a blue lead is the weather, not the forecast. The tell is the swing since 2022, and the independents, because they decide most of these races.
Races to watch // Senate
Iowa
+5point swing toward Republicans
+3point jump in independents
As of October 29
House race to watch: IA-02
373,386 early votes so far, already 109% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 48%, Republicans 33%, independents 19%.
More Republicans are registered, yet 34 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 18 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 19, independents 16%. Now: Democrats by 14, independents 19%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Kansas
+13point swing toward Democrats
Independents steady since 2022
As of October 28
282,232 early votes so far, already 77% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 45%, Republicans 41%, independents 14%.
About one and a half times as many Republicans are registered, yet 24 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 13 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Republicans by 10, independents 13%. Now: Democrats by 3, independents 14%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Maine
No real change since 2022
+4point jump in independents
As of October 28 · registration from March 7
243,608 early votes so far, already 110% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 48%, Republicans 22%, independents 30%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 39 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 20 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 25, independents 26%. Now: Democrats by 26, independents 30%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
North Carolina
+7point swing toward Democrats
+5point jump in independents
As of October 28
House race to watch: NC-01
2,150,024 early votes so far: 36% more than on the same day in 2022.
Who: Democrats 40%, Republicans 25%, independents 35%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 37 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 23 in every 100 Republicans.
Same day in 2022: Democrats by 7, independents 30%. Now: Democrats by 14, independents 35%. 2022 source
LILLY SAYS: The other eight don't sort voters by party, or haven't published it yet, so I can tell you how many have voted but not who.
Alaska
61,649
183% of 2022's early vote
Georgia
2,308,779
91% of 2022's early vote
Michigan
1,704,753
112% of 2022's early vote
House races to watch: MI-04, MI-07, MI-10
Minnesota
419,189
71% of 2022's early vote
New Hampshire
Not yet
No early count published
Ohio
1,291,317
93% of 2022's early vote
House races to watch: OH-07, OH-09
South Carolina
789,240
128% of 2022's early vote
Texas
5,846,852
106% of 2022's early vote
House races to watch: TX-15, TX-35
The House races and every other state ▸
An early vote is one person who has already voted, by mail or in person. Bars: the share of each party's own registered voters who have voted. 2022: North Carolina on the same day, the others at the end of early voting (UF Election Lab), so a rough guide.
LILLY SAYS: Light is the energy. Each state against its own 2022, so states that vote by mail don't look hot just for that. Bright white is already past half of last time's early vote with 5 days to go. Point at a state for who those voters are, and tap North Carolina, Pennsylvania or South Carolina for the exact pace against the same day in 2022.
- Connecticut added early in person voting after 2022, so it runs hot partly by rule.
- Kentucky opens early in person voting only in the last days, so it looks cold until then.
- Michigan added early in person voting after 2022, so it runs hot partly by rule.
- Oklahoma opens early in person voting only in the last days, so it looks cold until then.
- South Carolina's count here is in person only, while its 2022 total includes mail, so its shade understates it.
Hottest: Alaska 183%, Mississippi 153%, Virginia 143%. Coolest: West Virginia 47%, DC 60%, North Dakota 60%. Older counts: Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, West Virginia.
LILLY SAYS: Who has voted early says who is motivated, not who will win. Democrats vote early and Republicans vote on the day, so a blue lead this early is the weather.
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The front page
The world and the money
CBS News WorldIran claims 4 tankers hit mines in Strait of Hormuz
Wall Street Journal MarketsU.S. Stocks Fall After Alphabet Earnings Spark More AI Jitters
PBS NewsHour EconomyInflation heats up again, days before midterm elections
State headlines
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Previous editions
October 29Alabama's 2nd district flips: Figures (D) now favored, 53 in 100
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard