Live results here election night Nov 3 · 3 days
Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Saturday, October 31
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3 days to November 3
Today's story
the handicappersCook Political Report shifts predictions in CD 7, CD 9 in Democrats direction
Florida Politics reported it. Handicappers rate races on reporting and judgment, not polls, so a move like this can come before the polls show it. Read it at Florida Politics ▸
Democrats are 69 in 100 for the Senate, 92 for the House and 70 for the governors; nothing moved more than a point since yesterday. No race moved more than a point or two. 4 new polls came in. The closest race in the country is Wisconsin's 3rd district, Orden 50 in 100. 3 days to November 3.
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69 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
92 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
70 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
LILLY SAYS: In 100 means out of a hundred elections like this one. Sixty three is a lean, not a lock; a coin flip is anything near fifty.
Too close to call
Polls
Texas SenateDecidingData for Progress (C+) · 712 likely voters
D+4
Michigan SenateDecidingData for Progress (C+) · 622 likely voters
D+4
The Texas governor's raceData for Progress (C+) · 712 likely voters
R+1
The Michigan governor's raceData for Progress (C+) · 622 likely voters
D+9
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The Big Four, race by race ▾
The world's top story
After the ‘martyr’s’ funeral: The families left behind by Yemen’s war
Al Jazeera reported it at 1:48 am Eastern. Read it ▸
Last night's story
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
EndorsementIowa Capital Dispatch
Iowa Farmers Union pushes for Turek, the first federal candidate the group has endorsed in years
Who is voting
Where the energy is
Biggest swing
Kansas
+10
point swing toward Democrats
Against all of 2022's early vote, so early weeks can overstate it
Independents
North Carolina
+5
point jump in independents
More people voting
North Carolina
+34%
more early votes than the same day in 2022
LILLY SAYS: Each state below shows how many people have already voted early, which party they registered with (not how they voted), and how that stacks up against 2022, the last midterm. Democrats vote early and Republicans wait for Election Day, so a blue lead is the weather, not the forecast. The tell is the swing since 2022, and the independents, because they decide most of these races.
Races to watch // Senate
Iowa
+6point swing toward Republicans
+3point jump in independents
As of October 30
House race to watch: IA-02
407,374 early votes so far, already 119% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 47%, Republicans 34%, independents 19%.
More Republicans are registered, yet 36 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 19 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 19, independents 16%. Now: Democrats by 13, independents 19%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Kansas
+10point swing toward Democrats
+2point jump in independents
As of October 30
375,937 early votes so far, already 103% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 42%, Republicans 43%, independents 15%.
About one and a half times as many Republicans are registered, yet 30 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 18 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Republicans by 10, independents 13%. Now: even, independents 15%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
Maine
No real change since 2022
+4point jump in independents
As of October 30 · registration from March 7
288,672 early votes so far, already 130% of all of 2022's early votes.
Who: Democrats 47%, Republicans 23%, independents 30%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 44 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 24 in every 100 Republicans.
End of early voting in 2022: Democrats by 25, independents 26%. Now: Democrats by 24, independents 30%. Early weeks lean toward whoever mails first, so this can overstate the swing. 2022 source
North Carolina
+7point swing toward Democrats
+5point jump in independents
As of October 29
House race to watch: NC-01
2,353,234 early votes so far: 34% more than on the same day in 2022.
Who: Democrats 39%, Republicans 26%, independents 35%.
About as many Democrats as Republicans are registered, so turnout is the gap: 40 in every 100 Democrats have voted, against 26 in every 100 Republicans.
Same day in 2022: Democrats by 7, independents 30%. Now: Democrats by 14, independents 35%. 2022 source
LILLY SAYS: The other eight don't sort voters by party, or haven't published it yet, so I can tell you how many have voted but not who.
Alaska
77,749
231% of 2022's early vote
Georgia
2,810,170
111% of 2022's early vote
Michigan
1,858,731
122% of 2022's early vote
House races to watch: MI-04, MI-07, MI-10
Minnesota
728,961
124% of 2022's early vote
New Hampshire
Not yet
No early count published
Ohio
1,485,900
107% of 2022's early vote
House race to watch: OH-07
South Carolina
876,288
142% of 2022's early vote
House race to watch: SC-01
Texas
6,871,574
125% of 2022's early vote
House races to watch: TX-15, TX-35
The House races and every other state ▸
An early vote is one person who has already voted, by mail or in person. Bars: the share of each party's own registered voters who have voted. 2022: North Carolina on the same day, the others at the end of early voting (UF Election Lab), so a rough guide.
LILLY SAYS: Light is the energy. Each state against its own 2022, so states that vote by mail don't look hot just for that. Bright white is already past half of last time's early vote with 3 days to go. Point at a state for who those voters are, and tap North Carolina, Pennsylvania or South Carolina for the exact pace against the same day in 2022.
- Connecticut added early in person voting after 2022, so it runs hot partly by rule.
- Kentucky opens early in person voting only in the last days, so it looks cold until then.
- Michigan added early in person voting after 2022, so it runs hot partly by rule.
- Oklahoma opens early in person voting only in the last days, so it looks cold until then.
- South Carolina's count here is in person only, while its 2022 total includes mail, so its shade understates it.
Hottest: Alaska 231%, Mississippi 153%, Virginia 151%. Coolest: Utah 76%, DC 78%, Vermont 78%. Older counts: Mississippi.
LILLY SAYS: Who has voted early says who is motivated, not who will win. Democrats vote early and Republicans vote on the day, so a blue lead this early is the weather.
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The world and the money
Wall Street Journal WorldHow Iran Battered U.S. Bases and Caused Billions in Damage
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Previous editions
October 31Cook Political Report shifts predictions in CD 7, CD 9 in Democrats direction
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard