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Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Saturday, October 24
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10 days to November 3
Today's story
Lilly PredictsNebraska Senate moves 4 toward Osborn on a GBAO poll; Ricketts still 67 in 100
Democrats are 63 in 100 for the Senate, 91 for the House and 66 for the governors; nothing moved more than a point since yesterday. Michigan's 10th district is a coin flip again: Hines (D) 54 in 100. 7 new polls came in. The closest race in the country is Wisconsin's 3rd district, Orden 50 in 100. 10 days to November 3.
This morning's top story
Minnesota's 1st district: 6 points of win probability toward Finstad (R), now Finstad (R) 70 percent to win
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63 in 100
Steady since yesterday
Nebraska Senate: 4 toward Osborn, Ricketts 72 → 67. Why: a new GBAO poll, Osborn (I) +1.
91 in 100
Steady since yesterday
Minnesota's 1st: 6 toward Finstad, Finstad 64 → 70. Why: older polls fading, no new poll.
66 in 100
Steady since yesterday
No race here moved two points or more.
LILLY SAYS: In 100 means out of a hundred elections like this one. Sixty three is a lean, not a lock; a coin flip is anything near fifty.
Too close to call
Polls
The New York governor's raceActiVote · 400 likely voters
D+18
Ohio's 1st districtQuantus Insights (B/C) · 561 likely voters
D+4
Nebraska SenateGBAO (B/C) · 800 likely voters
D+1
Colorado's 5th districtPublic Policy Polling (B+) · 577 likely voters
Even
California's 48th districtTarrance Group (A/B) · 410 likely voters
D+3
Kansas's 2nd districtDCCC Targeting Team (B/C) · 639 likely voters
R+3
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The Big Four, race by race ▾
The world's top story
Iran says U.S. military not allowed in Gulf "under any circumstance"
CBS News World reported it at 6:34 pm Eastern. Read it ▸
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
EndorsementThe Hill
EndorsementWashington Examiner
Obama endorses Angie Nixon after cry for support to party leadership
EndorsementFlorida Politics
MemoAnchorage Daily News
Iran in ‘advanced stages’ of plots to kill U.S. officials abroad, memo warns
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The front page
Washington ExaminerWATCH LIVE: Trump rallies for Mike Collins and Rick Perry in Georgia
Anchorage Daily NewsOpinion: Alaska needs a fighter, and that fighter is Mary Peltola
PBS NewsHourTrump casts his midterm ballot early in Florida
The world and the money
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Previous editions
October 24Nebraska Senate moves 4 toward Osborn on a GBAO poll; Ricketts still 67 in 100
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard