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Lilly Predicts // The daily brief
Wednesday, October 28
Morning 5:01 am Afternoon 1:01 pm Evening 6:01 pm
6 days to November 3
Today's story
Lilly PredictsHinojosa
Democrat
Abbott
Republican
The Texas governor's race tightens: Abbott (R) slips to 64 in 100
Hinojosa
Democrat
Abbott
Republican
A new YouGov Blue poll of 1,000 likely voters had Hinojosa (D) up 3. Abbott (R) is still favored, 64 in 100, down from 71.
This morning's top story
Sabato moves 8 races, Missouri's 2nd district to Tossup among them
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65 in 100
Democrats +1 since yesterday
Texas Senate: 4 toward Talarico, Talarico 60 → 64. Why: a new YouGov Blue poll, Talarico (D) +8.
90 in 100
Steady since yesterday
Virginia's 1st: 3 toward Wittman, Wittman 50 → 54. Why: a new DCCC Targeting Team poll, Taylor (D) +1.
69 in 100
Democrats +3 since yesterday
The Wisconsin governor's race: 8 toward Crowley, Crowley 70 → 78. Why: a new Marquette University Law School poll, Crowley (D) +7.
LILLY SAYS: In 100 means out of a hundred elections like this one. Sixty three is a lean, not a lock; a coin flip is anything near fifty.
Too close to call
Polls
Minnesota SenateDecidingThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 752 likely voters
D+14
South Carolina SenateDecidingThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 707 likely voters
R+1
The Minnesota governor's raceThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 752 likely voters
D+18
The Florida special Senate raceThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 813 likely voters
R+6
The Florida governor's raceThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 813 likely voters
R+4
The South Carolina governor's raceThe New York Times/Siena University (A) · 707 likely voters
R+7
LILLY SAYS: A poll is one snapshot by one pollster. The model weighs each by its track record and its age, so one headline poll rarely moves a race much.
LILLY SAYS: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections rate races by reporting and judgment, not a model. When they move a race, it usually means they heard something before the polls showed it.
LILLY SAYS: The generic ballot is the one question that lifts or sinks every race at once. Approval is shown because people ask; it is not in the model.
LILLY SAYS: Money tells you who has help coming. The model never looks at it, so when the money and the odds disagree, that is worth a second look.
The Big Four, race by race ▾
The world's top story
Fed holds interest rates steady even as inflation remains high
CBS MoneyWatch reported it at 5:34 pm Eastern. Read it ▸
LILLY SAYS: The world's news is here because it is what people are talking about, not because the model reads it. It does not.
The economy
LILLY SAYS: Gas, groceries and rates are what most people mean when they say the economy. These are the official numbers, with the week's change.
Also today
WithdrawalPBS NewsHour
WATCH: Trump calls for Peltola to drop out after report her campaign helped recruit 2nd Dan Sullivan
WithdrawalNew York Post
ScandalNew York Post
Right-wing activists James O’Keefe, Cam Higby charged with unlawfully voting in Minnesota
ScandalWall Street Journal
EndorsementFree Beacon
Angie Nixon Touts Endorsement From Muslim Advocacy Group That Blames Israel For Hamas Attacks
MemoSemafor
This week
LILLY SAYS: Deadlines and debates that can still change a race. Most of the country is already voting.
The front page
PBS NewsHourWATCH: Trump calls for Peltola to drop out after report her campaign helped recruit 2nd Dan Sullivan
Florida PoliticsDebbie Doniger, Jason Provost: Ashley Moody, listen to the Floridians who rely on hemp
The world and the money
Wall Street Journal WorldVance Engaged Iran to Revive Peace Talks
Bloomberg MarketsFed Officials Left Interest Rates Unchanged
Wall Street Journal MarketsThe Fed Held Steady on Rates, Leaving Investors to Sit Tight, Too
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Previous editions
October 28The Texas governor's race tightens: Abbott (R) slips to 64 in 100
October 6Democrats' House odds up 1 to 90 in 100 as Kansas Senate moves 2 toward Hamilton on a YouGov poll
October 4Wisconsin's 1st district moves 3 toward Steil on an Impact Research poll; still a coin flip
September 30Democrats' Senate odds down 3 to 66 in 100 as Iowa Senate moves 3 toward Hinson on a Quantus Insights poll
September 258 new polls and the board holds: Democrats 66 in 100 for the Senate and 88 for the House
September 23Democrats' Senate odds up 5 to 64 in 100
September 13Democrats' Senate odds up 2 to 54 in 100 as Texas Senate moves 3 toward Talarico on a SoCal Strategies poll
September 86 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 58 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 32 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 56 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
September 12 new polls and the board holds: Republicans 55 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 81 for the House
August 251 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 77 for the House
August 221 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 54 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 211 new poll and the board holds: Republicans 53 in 100 for the Senate; Democrats 78 for the House
August 14The Ohio special Senate race moves 4 toward Brown on a Wedgewood Polls poll; Brown still 65 in 100
August 11Democrats' House odds down 1 to 78 in 100 as Michigan's 10th district moves 3 toward Bouchard